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000
FXUS64 KSJT 251123
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
623 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 440 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A shortwave aloft will be positioned just to our west across New
Mexico by Thursday afternoon and evening. This will combine with a
dryline across the region during this same time period and also
overnight. These features will serve to spark thunderstorms along
the dryline boundary during the evening.

Regarding this afternoon, however, this activity will initially be
inhibited by a capping inversion aloft. This will make the
development of the convection difficult and should limit coverage
during the afternoon (prior to 7 PM CDT). It`s important to note
that this feature continues to produce some amount of uncertainty
for this forecast. If this cap is broken during the afternoon, the
thunderstorms that do develop will quickly become severe given the
ample wind shear and instability that will be in place. Large hail
(2"+) will be the predominant concern during the afternoon along
with a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds (60-70 MPH).

As we move forward into the evening hours, the coverage is expected
to increase after 7 PM CDT. This will result from the reduction in
the capping inversion aloft as the wave moves further east. This
weakening of the cap should allow for more widespread convection.
Conditions will remain favorable for large hail (2"+) and a couple
of tornadoes. The threat of damaging winds (60-70 MPH) will increase
overnight and continue into Friday morning as this activity moves
off to the east by 7 to 9 AM CDT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning across far
southeast portions of the forecast area but should move east of
the area by late morning. The dryline is expected to stall over
southeast counties Friday afternoon. Isolated strong convection
may develop along the dryline during peak heating, but the bulk of
any thunderstorm development should remain east of the area into
the evening hours.

Rich low level moisture will rapidly return across the area Friday
night, as the dryline retreats westward, ahead of the next mid/upper
level trough developing over the Desert Southwest. This system
will bring the potential for additional severe thunderstorms to
the area from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night/early Sunday
morning. Low level and deep layer shear will increase considerably
across the area, especially Saturday evening/overnight, with
moderate to strong instability developing in the warm sector by
Saturday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms may develop as early
as Saturday morning, primarily across the Big Country, but more
widespread thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of
the the dryline Saturday afternoon and early evening. Shear
profiles will support supercells with large to very large hail
and some tornadoes. The tornado threat may increase Saturday
evening, with the potential for a few strong tornadoes as the low
level jet strengthens and low level shear increases. At this time
it appears the greatest tornado threat will be across eastern
portions of the Big Country. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible over much of the area overnight,
with a continued severe threat. Precipitation is expected to
diminish over southeast counties Sunday morning.

For early next week, low rain chances will be possible mainly
over southeast counties Monday and Tuesday afternoon but most of
the area should remain dry. Another shortwave trough may bring
additional showers and thunderstorms to the area by mid week but
details are uncertain this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR ceilings have developed across portions of our area this
morning, as indicated by ASOS observations. Models continue to
show these conditions worsening to IFR levels in some instances
with most locations dropping to at least MVFR levels. In
addition, winds are expected to increase throughout this morning
and continue through this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will
increase tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     82  63  85  64 /  10  70  10  10
San Angelo  83  63  88  63 /  10  60   0  10
Junction    87  68  92  66 /  10  30  20   0
Brownwood   82  65  86  65 /  10  60  40  10
Sweetwater  82  62  85  62 /  10  60   0  10
Ozona       81  63  88  64 /   0  40   0  10
Brady       82  67  87  66 /  10  50  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41