Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER NORTON MA
202 PM EDT WED APR 25 2018

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /9/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
WESTERN MAINE...FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHERN VERMONT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG THE UPPER SAINT JOHN RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN NORTHERN
MAINE...MAINLY UPSTREAM OF FORT KENT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
AND NEW YORK STATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS
ENDED FOR THIS SEASON.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER HAS PREVAILED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST 3 WEEKS OF APRIL ALONG WITH BOUTS OF
RAIN AND SNOW. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE SNOWPACK TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BIT LONGER
THAN NORMAL. RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS
ACCELERATED SNOWMELT WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED AN INCH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY COASTAL AND
EASTERN MAINE.

A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE
SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. FOLLOWING THE
STORMINESS AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL LIKELY MELT THE REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
NERFC SERVICE AREA EXCEPT ACROSS THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE
80S NEXT WEEK ACROSS INTERIOR NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WITH 70S ALL THE WAY TO THE CANADIAN BORDER IN FAR
NORTHERN MAINE. WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION NEXT WEEK...MOST OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE OFFICIAL 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM NOAA`S CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER ( CPC ) TENDS TO AGREE WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED THOUGHTS AS
IT CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF
NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE FROM 30 APRIL - 4 MAY 2018.
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE NERFC SERVICE AREA. THE LONGER TERM CPC
OUTLOOK FOR MAY SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD SEE WARMER AND SOMEWHAT
WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

THE LAST FEW DAYS OF WARM WEATHER HAS ACCELERATED SNOWMELT ACROSS
THE SEVEN STATE REGION OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK STATE. AS OF THIS
MORNING...THE ONLY SNOW OF SIGNIFICANCE OUTSIDE OF NORTHERN MAINE IS
FOUND AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET.

...NEW YORK STATE...

SOME SNOW REMAINS ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND ADIRONDACK
MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE BUT EVEN THERE...IT IS
BECOMING SPARSE BELOW 1500 FEET WHERE DEPTHS AVERAGE BETWEEN A TRACE
AND 6 INCHES. ABOVE 1500 FEET...SNOW DEPTHS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE
COMMON WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACK
MOUNTAINS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL.

WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAIN REGIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AVERAGE NEAR
OR LESS THAN AN INCH BUT THOSE AMOUNTS INCREASE TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
INCHES ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FEET. AGAIN...THESE AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY
TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL ACROSS THE EMPIRE STATE.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

APART FROM SOME PATCHY SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS...THE GROUND IS NOW
BARE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE
BERKSHIRES ARE NOW HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT WHICH IS THE NORM
FOR LATE APRIL.

...VERMONT...

ACROSS THE GREEN MOUNTAIN STATE OF VERMONT...MOST OF THE SNOW IS NOW
GONE BELOW 1000 OR 1500 FEET. SOME APPRECIABLE SNOW REMAINS ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE AND IN NORTHEAST
VERMONT WHERE DEPTHS ARE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE 2000 FEET.
WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWPACK ARE STILL AS HIGH AS
4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT THE AREAL EXTENT OF
THIS SNOWCOVER IS BECOMING PRETTY LOW NOW. SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER
EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE STATE OF VERMONT ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END
OF APRIL.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO AREAS
FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE BORDER WITH QUEBEC PROVINCE
CANADA. IN THESE AREAS...SNOW DEPTHS IN THE VALLEYS AVERAGE BETWEEN
ZERO AND 6 INCHES BUT AMOUNTS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH ELEVATION
WHERE A SOLID 1 TO 2.5 FEET REMAINS IN THE WOODED AREAS ABOVE 2000
FEET.

ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE
VALLEYS AVERAGE BETWEEN ZERO AND 2 INCHES...BUT THOSE VALUES
INCREASE RAPIDLY ABOVE 2000 FEET WHERE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER IS
STILL AVAILABLE FOR MELT RUNOFF IN THE SPRING SNOWPACK. BASINS LIKE
THE UPPER PEMIGEWASSET...FAR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND UPPER SACO
STILL HAVE A LARGE AMOUNT OF SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR MELT RUNOFF AS
SOME OF THE TERRAIN IN THOSE LOCATIONS RISES ABOVE 3000 FEET.

SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NEAR NORMAL
ELSEWHERE FOR LATE APRIL ACROSS THE GRANITE STATE.

...MAINE...

SNOWCOVER HAS DECREASED ACROSS MAINE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS BUT A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE. FROM THE
FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MAINE MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST
TO THE COAST TO INCLUDE ALL OF DOWNEAST MAINE...THE SNOW IS
BASICALLY GONE NOW. ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE...SNOW
DEPTHS AVERAGE NEAR OR LESS THAN 6 INCHES IN THE
VALLEYS...INCREASING TO BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE 2000 FEET. ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST LOGGING WOODS OF MAINE...SNOW DEPTHS AVERAGE BETWEEN
10 AND 20 INCHES...DECREASING TO 10 INCHES OR LESS IN THE NORTHEAST
POTATO COUNTRY. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS MAINE ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL IN THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
AVERAGE 3 INCHES OR LESS BELOW 1000 FEET...INCREASING TO AS HIGH AS
5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 2000 FEET. ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LOGGING WOODS
OF MAINE...ON AVERAGE...5 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER REMAINS AVAILABLE
FOR MELT RUNOFF BUT THOSE AMOUNTS DECREASE TO BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES
IN THE NORTHEAST POTATO COUNTRY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN MAINE ARE
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FAR NORTH AND NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE FOR LATE
APRIL.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS...

A COLD AND STORMY APRIL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES HAS
KEPT CONDITIONS RELATIVELY WET AS SNOWMELT HAS BEEN RUNNING AT LEAST
A WEEK OR TWO BEHIND SCHEDULE FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND GREENUP HAS
BEEN DELAYED. THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FROM 21 APRIL
2018 CONTINUED TO SHOW NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL ANTECEDENT MOISTURE
STATES ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. THE WETTEST CONDITIONS
CONTINUED TO BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW
YORK STATE WHERE VERY TO EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE BEING
OBSERVED. THE PALMER INDEX LOOKS AT MOISTURE STATES OVER THE LONG
TERM...ON THE ORDER OF WEEKS TO MONTHS.

NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS FROM 23 APRIL 2018 PAINT A
SIMILAR PICTURE. MOISTURE STATES WERE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN/WESTERN NEW YORK STATE BUT ALSO HIGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MAINE DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND
SNOWMELT. THE DRY SIGNAL THAT WAS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHWEST VERMONT
AND NORTHEAST NEW YORK STATE DURING THE PAST MONTH HAS NOW COMPLETELY
DISAPPEARED.

TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
(USGS)...GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
APRIL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOUND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. ACROSS LONG
ISLAND...ALTHOUGH SHALLOW GROUNDWATER WELLS HAVE RECOVERED TO NEAR
NORMAL...DEEP AQUIFER WELLS REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
HOWEVER...RECHARGE IS EVIDENT IN THE DEEP AQUIFER WELLS ACROSS LONG
ISLAND NOW AND THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2
MONTHS.

THE HIGHEST GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BEING REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST MAINE AND CAPE COD...DUE TO STEADY
RUNOFF FROM RAIN EVENTS AND MELTING SNOW. IN DOWNEAST MAINE...THE
GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELL AT CALAIS IS AT A RECORD HIGH LEVEL FOR
APRIL WITH RECORDS GOING BACK 34 YEARS. AND ON CAPE COD IN
SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...THE GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELL IN
BREWSTER WAS ALSO AT A RECORD HIGH APRIL LEVEL WITH RECORDS SPANNING
BACK 54 YEARS.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HEART OF SPRING. ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE...GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE...STILLWATER
RESERVOIR AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN WERE ALL CLOSE TO NORMAL LATE APRIL
ELEVATIONS WHILE INDIAN LAKE HAD DROPPED ABOUT 4 FEET BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO STEADY RELEASES DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL TO PREPARE FOR
SNOWMELT RUNOFF. IN CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE...OWASCO LAKE WAS ALSO
VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL POOL ELEVATION AS OF 24 APRIL 2018. THE NEW
YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE RESERVOIRS
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WAS RUNNING AT 99.2 PERCENT
CAPACITY AS OF 23 APRIL 2018 WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. 3 OF THE
7 LARGE RESERVOIRS COMPRISING THIS SYSTEM WERE ABOVE CAPACITY AND
SPILLING WATER UNCONTROLLED OVER THEIR SPILLWAYS BUT ALL OF THOSE
FEED INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER WATERSHED WHICH IS NOT PART OF THE
NERFC FORECAST AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...LARGE SCALE RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN AND
KENNEBEC RIVER BASINS DRAINING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE HAD DROPPED SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF SNOW LEFT TO PROVIDE RUNOFF INTO THESE SYSTEMS.
FURTHER SOUTH...QUABBIN AND WACHUSETT RESERVOIRS...WHICH PROVIDE
DRINKING WATER TO MUCH OF METROPOLITAN BOSTON IN
MASSACHUSETTS...WERE AT 92.9 AND 91.2 PERCENT CAPACITY RESPECTIVELY
HEADING INTO APRIL AND HAVE UNDOUBTEDLY RISEN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
THE MONTH DUE TO SEVERAL RAIN EVENTS COMBINED WITH MELTING SNOW. AND
ACROSS RHODE ISLAND...SCITUATE RESERVOIR...THE MAIN WATER SUPPLY
RESERVOIR FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING THE CITY OF
PROVIDENCE...WAS AT 284.8 FEET AS OF 24 APRIL 2018 WHICH WAS 103.6
PERCENT OF CAPACITY. AT THIS LEVEL...WATER WAS SPILLING UNCONTROLLED
OVER ITS SPILLWAY INTO THE MAINSTEM PAWTUXET RIVER.

THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF DROUGHT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OR NEW YORK STATE
AND CONSIDERING SOIL MOISTURE STATES...GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND
RESERVOIR/LAKE LEVELS...WE EXPECT NO WIDESPREAD WATER SUPPLY ISSUES
HEADING THROUGH THE SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS ALL OF NEW YORK
STATE AND NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF APRIL. FLOWS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SEVERAL GAUGED
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE PASSING FLOWS WITHIN THE HIGHEST 20 PERCENT
OF THE HISTORICAL RECORD FOR 25 APRIL. AND WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY TO AFFECT RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MANY OF THESE
FLOWS ARE LIKELY TO GO EVEN HIGHER...POSSIBLY EVEN INTO FLOOD.

THE LAST OF THE RIVER ICE IS ACTIVELY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT
JOHN...BIG BLACK AND ALLAGASH RIVER BASINS IN NORTHERN MAINE. THE
ICE HAS BECOME QUITE ROTTED AND WE ARE CONFIDENT IT WILL BE FLUSHED
OUT OF MAINE ENTIRELY BY THIS WEEKEND AS RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW
AND RAINFALL BOOSTS FLOWS ENOUGH TO BREAK AND MOVE THE REMAINING
ICE. THIS PAST WEEKEND...LOCALIZED ICE JAMS FORMED ALONG THE
AROOSTOOK RIVER IN NORTHEAST MAINE...BRIEFLY PUSHING THE STAGE ABOVE
FLOOD AT WASHBURN. UNTIL THE REMAINING ICE FLUSHES OUT...LOCALIZED
ICE JAM FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ONE-HALF OF MAINE AND THE
REMAINDER OF NEW YORK STATE AND NEW ENGLAND...NO ICE REMAINS IN
RIVERS AND STREAMS.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN AND
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN VERMONT. IN THESE
AREAS...RIVER FLOWS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL...SOIL MOISTURE STATES
ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE IS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW
WATER AVAILABLE FOR MELT RUNOFF INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN THE NEAR
TERM...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS WILL INCREASE RIVER FLOWS EVEN MORE AND WE ARE CONFIDENT
OF FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS
THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. OTHER RIVERS WITH AN
ENHANCED FLOOD THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE BIG
BLACK...AROOSTOOK...PISCATAQUIS AND SWIFT IN INTERIOR MAINE...THE
UPPER CONNECTICUT AND PEMIGEWASSET IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
PASSUMPSIC...UPPER MISSISQUOI AND UPPER CONNECTICUT IN VERMONT. THIS
FLOOD THREAT IS HIGHEST IN THE NEAR TERM AS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA...TO INCLUDE ALL OF
NEW YORK STATE AND REMAINDER OF NEW ENGLAND...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL. IN THESE AREAS...RIVER FLOWS...SOIL
MOISTURE STATES AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
HOWEVER THERE IS LIMITED OR NO SNOW WATER AVAILABLE FOR MELT RUNOFF
INTO AREA RIVERS. GREENUP IS BEGINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
START TO DRY OUT SOIL MOISTURE STATES AND PLANTS TAKE IN WATER FOR
THEIR GROWTH NEEDS. WITHOUT THE ADDED RUNOFF POTENTIAL FROM MELTING
SNOW...IT WOULD TAKE A VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TO INDUCE FLOODING
IN THESE AREAS. AND...SINCE RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT FORECASTING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN MAINE...A NEAR
NORMAL OR AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL SEEMS JUSTIFIED IN THESE AREAS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE UPPER SAINT JOHN RIVER BASIN AND ITS TRIBUTARIES IN FAR
NORTHERN MAINE. THIS INCLUDES THE SAINT JOHN RIVER NEAR AND ABOVE
FORT KENT AS WELL AS THE BIG BLACK AND ALLAGASH RIVERS. IN THESE
RIVERS...RIVER ICE IS STILL ACTIVELY BREAKING AND MOVING THROUGH.
FROM ALL ACCOUNTS THE RIVER ICE IS QUITE ROTTED AND WEAK. IF ICE
JAMS FORM...THEY WILL LIKELY RELEASE FAIRLY QUICKLY UNDER THE
PRESSURE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BACKWATER AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE AROOSTOOK RIVER THIS PAST WEEKEND.
ISOLATED ICE JAM FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR UNTIL THE ICE IS
COMPLETELY FLUSHED OUT WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY THE END OF THIS
WEEKEND. SINCE THESE RIVERS WOULD NORMALLY BE ICE FREE BY NOW...A
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THREAT FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS DEEMED TO STILL
EXIST ALONG THESE FAR NORTHERN MAINE RIVERS.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA...RIVER ICE HAS ALREADY
BEEN FLUSHED OUT AND THE ICE JAM SEASON IS OVER UNTIL NEXT WINTER.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

BARRING A MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOW EVENT OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...THIS
WILL BE THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NERFC THIS SEASON.

END/HORWOOD
$$



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