Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS28 KWNS 262111
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0411 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

Medium range guidance is in reasonably good agreement during the Day
3-8 period. Fire weather concerns will generally be confined to
portions of the Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity beyond Day 3
as an upper trough digs across the western U.S. beginning Day 5/Wed.
Before that however, an upper low will migrate east from the Great
Basin to the central/southern Rockies on Day 3/Mon, resulting in
fire weather concerns across parts of the central/southern High
Plains.

...Day 3/Mon -- Central/Southern High Plains Vicinity...

An upper low centered over UT will become an open wave as it tracks
east toward the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis is forecast across
southeast CO and a dryline will extend southward near the NM/TX
border. Gusty winds and dry conditions behind the dryline will
result in elevated fire weather conditions were fuels are dry.
Critical conditions are expected closer to the low where low level
winds will be strongest from northeast NM into western portions of
the OK/TX Panhandles and southeast CO.

...Days 5-7 -- Portions of the Southwest/Great Basin Vicinity...

As the Rockies upper trough shifts east on Tuesday, another trough
will begin to develop southward along the Pacific Coast. The trough
will become more amplified on Day 5/Wed with some modestly enhanced
deep layer southwesterly flow overspreading the region. Surface
winds will increase as low pressure forms over NV and another low
develops near the southern High Plains. Widespread low RH conditions
are expected and elevated to critical conditions are forecast. The
strongest surface winds are expected across parts of southern NV and
northwest AZ into far southwest UT and critical conditions are
anticipated at this time.

As the trough continues to intensify, elevated to potentially
critical fire weather concerns will persist where fuels are dry
across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners vicinity.

..Leitman.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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