Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 231942
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

...Some threat for light rain Tuesday/Wednesday...

.DISCUSSION...A couple of disturbances coming together for the
midweek period will bring some light rain to all of northern
Lower Michigan Tuesday/Tuesday night...lingering over northeast
Lower on Wednesday.  Temperatures will likely be cooler Wednesday
but are expected to warm again for Thursday.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-241100-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer...except 7 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......30 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (240).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.15 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (120).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.16 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....45-50...except 37-42 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (770).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-241100-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 77-82 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......33 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (240).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 18 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........0.05-0.16 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....47-52...except 39-44 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (830).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.11 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-241100-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 21 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 1200, then chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......35 percent wetter...except 25 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (160).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....33-38.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (140).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....44-49...except around 41 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (820).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-241100-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....59-64...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......35 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (140).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....33-38.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (150).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.11 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent...except 57-62 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (860).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-241100-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
342 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........53-58 percent.
   24 HR Trend......37 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (170).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.12 in.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.15 in.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200, then chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (880).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JPB


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