Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
000
FNUS73 KAPX 251916
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Emery Rd burn...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
316 PM EDT Fri May 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1600 EDT on May 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...The most extensive shower/thunderstorm activity this
afternoon is found north of the fire site, closer to M-72. However,
isolated showers were crossing Houghton Lake as this forecast was
written. These are likely to graze to pass just north of the fire
site between now and ignition. That does not preclude another stray
shower to two to form late this afternoon. Better chances for rain
will wait until late tonight, and especially during the day
Saturday.

Gusty west-southwest winds will see a few gusts to 30 mph late this
afternoon, though winds will rapidly weaken this evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (15-25 percent). Isolated showers.
Temperature.........85 at ignition...Max 85.
RH..................39 percent at ignition...Min 34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 15 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds around 15 mph. A few gusts to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7900-8400
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 20 mph.
Vent rate...........Excellent /1600 at ignition. Max...excellent
                    /1600/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........35  35
Weather cov.....ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............85  85
RH..............39  39
20 FT wind dir..W   W
20 FT wind spd..15  15
20 FT wind gust.30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...8.4 7.9
Transp wind dir.W   W
Transp wind spd.18  20
Haines index....4   4
VRate/100.......16  15

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Temperature.........Min 63.
RH..................Max 84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest around
                    5 mph after midnight becoming light. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL decreasing to 600-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (100-1200).
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........41  39  46  58  59  60  61  64  57  60  45  56
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............85  84  81  77  73  69  67  65  64  63  63  63
RH..............39  40  44  52  59  70  75  78  81  84  84  84
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  12  10  8   5   5   5   4   5   5   4   4
20 FT wind gust.25  20  18  15  8   8   8   6   8   8   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...6.3 4.2 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   NW
Transp wind spd.20  20  18  16  14  13  13  14  14  14  13  12
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3
VRate/100.......12  8   4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   2   2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Scattered
                    showers, then scattered thunderstorms early in
                    the afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 84.
RH..................Min 43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......700-2100 ft AGL increasing to 6700-7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 13 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to excellent (100-900).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........50     57     48     48     57     59
Weather cov.....S CHC  SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC                ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD
Temp............64     68     76     82     84     83
RH..............81     76     60     47     43     47
20 ft wind......SW 4   SW 4   W 5    W 5    W 6    W 5
20 ft wind gust.6      6      6      6      7      6
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   700    4000   6700   7600   7800
Transport wind..W 9    W 9    W 12   W 12   W 10   W 12
Haines index....3      3      3      3      4      4
VRate/100.......1      1      4      7      8      9

$$
Forecaster...Jeff Zoltowski
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810624.1/APX
.DELDT 05/25/18



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.