Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FNUS73 KBIS 221255
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Cp 2...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
755 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across western
North Dakota late this afternoon and slowly push eastward toward
the burn area between 4 pm and 7 pm. Southerly winds around 10 mph
will shift out of the east around 10 mph between 5 pm and 6 pm and
remain easterly through the night and most of the day tomorrow.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 increasing increasing to 3 late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting out of the east
around 6 pm. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6400-8000 ft AGL increasing to 8700-9900 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (38200-61100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  74  77  75  73  59
Weather cov.....            ISO ISO SCT
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            ISO ISO SCT
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  20  20  30
LAL.............1   1   1   2   2   3
Temp............72  74  75  76  77  77
RH..............42  37  34  34  32  33
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SE
20 FT wind spd..7   8   10  8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.10  11  10  9   9   7
Mix hgt (kft)...6.4 8.0 8.7 9.3 9.9 9.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   8   8   7   7   7
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100038  56  61  56  59  57

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms early
in the evening. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................3 decreasing to 2 after midnight decreasing to 1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......7000-8800 ft AGL decreasing to 300-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the east 5 to 13
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (2200-44100 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........56  57  54  55  49  45  54  75  71  66  62  63
Weather cov.....SCT                     ISO
Weather type....RW                      RW
Tstm cov........SCT                     ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).30  10  10  10  10  0   20  10  0   10  0   0
LAL.............3   1   1   1   1   1   2   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............76  74  71  67  64  62  61  60  60  59  58  58
RH..............36  38  46  56  63  70  75  78  75  78  80  83
20 FT wind dir..E   E   NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.7   9   10
Mix hgt (kft)...8.8 7.0 3.9 2.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.6   5   9   10  13  12  10  10  10  9   9   8
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/100044  28  31  20  8   9   7   6   6   5   3   2

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 49 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 increasing to 2 in the morning, then
                    increasing to 3 in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft AGL increasing to 4300-4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 17 mph increasing to 20 to 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3400-40400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (54200-85500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........65        69        75        72
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     S CHC     CHANCE
CWR.............0         0         0         50
Chc of pcpn (%).10        20        20        50
LAL.............1         2         2         3
Temp............57        62        73        77
RH..............86        81        57        45
20 FT wind......E 6       E 8       SE 13G14  SE 15G17
Mix hgt (ft)....500       1500      2600      4200
Transport wind..E 8       E 14      SE 17     SE 21
Haines index....4         3         3         3
SDspl kt-ft/10003         18        40        77

$$
Forecaster...JONES
Requested by...Calvin Moldenhauer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810466.0/BIS
.EMAIL calvin_moldenhauer@fws.gov


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