Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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Spot Forecast for Macedonia Glade Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Louisville, KY
833 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will control the area today, bringing dry
and mostly sunny skies. Highs will be around 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday, but still a bit below normal for this time of year. Relative
humidity values will mostly drop into the 20-30 percent range this
afternoon along with sufficient mixing heights and fair overall
dispersion values.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Temperature.........57 at ignition...Max 63.
RH..................30 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 6 to 9 mph with gusts to
14 mph.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL by mid afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /36800 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /39000 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................11 increasing to 39.
DSI.................2.

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........3      2      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............57     62     63
RH..............30     24     24
20 ft wind......NE 7   NE 8   NE 8
20 ft wind gust.12     14     13
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   4600   4600
Transport wind..NE 10  NE 10  NE 10
Dispersion......2      2      2
LVORI...........1      1      1
ADI.............38     41     37
VRate kt-ft/100037     39     37

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Temperature.........Min 38.
RH..................Max 73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 4 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......3400-4400 ft AGL decreasing to 100-400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (500-37300 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................36 decreasing to 4.
DSI.................2.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........4      7      8      9      9      23
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............61     56     51     46     44     42
RH..............27     37     46     55     60     62
20 ft wind......NE 6   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   NE 5   E 5
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....4400   3400   1200   100    300    300
Transport wind..NE 9   NE 10  NE 7   NE 6   E 6    E 6
Dispersion......2      2      2      2      2      2
LVORI...........1      2      2      3      3      3
ADI.............36     5      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100037     31     8      1      2      1

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......200-1800 ft AGL increasing to 2600-4000 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (700-32500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................7 increasing to 26 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 37 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 30 early in the afternoon.
DSI.................2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........36     33     33     32     28     38
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............39     39     49     59     64     66
RH..............68     73     53     39     34     31
20 ft wind......E 5    E 6    E 6    E 6    E 6    E 7
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....200    400    1800   3100   3600   4000
Transport wind..E 6    E 6    E 12   E 13   E 7    E 8
Dispersion......2      2      2      2      2      2
LVORI...........3      3      2      1      2      2
ADI.............3      4      26     41     25     30
VRate kt-ft/10001      2      19     33     22     26

$$
Forecaster...DM
Requested by...Chad Bladow
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807158.0/LMK
.EMAIL Cbladow@tnc.org



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