Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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605
FNUS74 KLZK 240818
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Warren Prairie NE Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
318 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...

The category day will be a 3 to 4...with a mixing height 500 temp
of 73 to 75 F.

Somewhat drier weather will be seen for today...with no chance for
rainfall expected. However...this will be short-lived as rain
chances return for Wed into Wed night...and again on Fri.


.TODAY...

Temperature.........60 at ignition...Max 76.
RH..................82 percent at ignition...Min 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 8 mph increasing to 13 to 16 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds northwest at 6 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 5 to 7
                    mph.
LVORI...............2 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Dispersion..........5 increasing to 39.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 6500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6619 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  64  66  69  71  73  73  75  74
RH..............82  76  69  63  57  55  53  50  51
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.3   5   8   13  16  16  14  13  13
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 54.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 14 mph decreasing to 0 to 3 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Dispersion..........36 decreasing to 6 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 6400 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6580 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............73  72  68  65  62  61  60  59  58  57  56  56
RH..............54  54  61  68  75  78  81  83  86  87  89  89
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1
Eye lvl wnd gst.
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.14  13  9   5   1   0   1   2   2   3   3   3
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10

.WEDNESDAY...

Temperature.........Max 75.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Northeast 2 to 7 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Dispersion..........5 increasing to 16 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 8 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Eye level winds.....North winds 5 to 6 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 6500 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6633 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............56  56  60  65  69  70  72  73  73  74  74  72
RH..............90  90  80  71  63  58  54  51  50  50  50  54
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.                        10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Eye lvl wnd spd.3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.                        10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   NE  NE  N   NE
Transp wind spd.2   2   3   6   7   6   5   3   2   2   2   3
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20

$$
Forecaster...W Gilmore
Requested by...Kyle Lapham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807508.0/LZK
.EMAIL klapham@tnc.org



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