Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS72 KTAE 221020
FWSTAE

Spot Forecast for SVR East RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
620 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on July 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (850) 942-8833, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible all morning
and early afternoon near the burn site but confidence is low that
one will impact the site. They will be slow moving so if one moves
over the burn site, it could rain for 30 min to an hour and have
occasional lightning strikes. Minimum RH values will be well above
minimum requirements, above 60% throughout the day. Mixing
heights will rise quickly and be above 2000ft by 10am. Transport
winds will generally be out of the south, around 10MPH by late
afternoon. Winds could be slightly higher with any rain or
thunderstorms that impact the area. Outflow boundaries from
thunderstorms could also impact the burn site but that cannot be
forecast this far advance. These would cause wind shifts but would
likely remain less than 10 MPH. Similar conditions exist Tuesday
with a slightly higher chance of rain.


.REST OF TODAY...
TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........41  48  63  70  70  69  69  67  63  61
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
CWR.............50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  50  20
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............79  80  83  84  85  85  85  86  86  86
RH..............86  82  76  72  70  71  70  69  67  67
20 FT wind dir..SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   7   8   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.                        10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.5 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   10
Dispersion idx..8   11  15  15  17  20  30  34  37  40
LVORI...........5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60  59  59  55  49  42  35  29  26  27  30  33
Weather cov.....SCH SCH                         CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW                          RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH                         CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30
LAL.............2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............86  85  83  83  82  81  81  80  79  79  79  79
RH..............69  71  74  76  78  79  81  82  84  84  87  87
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.10  12  12  12  12  12  10  10  9   9   9   8
Dispersion idx..38  37  14  12  10  7   5   5   4   4   4   4
LVORI...........3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5

.TUESDAY...
TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........36  39  41  43  48  53  58  63  65  66  68  70
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............30  30  40  40  40  40  40  40  50  50  50  50
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   2
Temp............79  79  80  81  83  85  85  86  86  86  86  85
RH..............87  87  84  79  74  71  70  70  71  71  70  70
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.                                10  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.7   7   6   7   8   9   10  12  13  14  15  16
Dispersion idx..3   3   8   13  18  25  35  38  42  35  40  46
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   3   3   3   3   2   3   3   2

$$
Forecaster...Nash
Requested by...Bart Rye
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1912534.0/TAE
.DELDT 07/22/19
.EMAIL barton_rye@fws.gov


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