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000
FXUS64 KBMX 250857
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
357 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024

A cold front, oriented east to west and bisecting the area in half,
is slowly pushing southward this morning. Dewpoints south of the
boundary are in the mid to upper 50s, with localized patchy fog
now developing. North of the front/I-20, dewpoints have fallen
into the 40s. The front will continue slowly pushing southward
today before lifting back northward this afternoon, in response to
a shortwave within northwesterly flow. It is possible a few
showers or storms could develop near the front as it lifts
northward. Low moisture, weak wind fields, and limited forcing
will keep coverage low and any storms limited in strength. Highs
this afternoon will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

Upper level ridging builds into the area tonight and Friday. The
frontal boundary will pivot and become oriented north to south
across the northeast, and reinforced by a weak wedge across north
Georgia. Continued weak impulses rotating around the ridge will
provide lift along the surface boundary for isolated shower and
storm coverage overnight and early Friday morning across the
northeast. Increasing heights will limit convection Friday
afternoon, with highs in the 80s areawide.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024

Two significant shortwave ejections will occur across the Plains
and Midwest over the course of the Friday night through Sunday
period. Meanwhile a ridge will remain in place over the Southeast
CONUS through most of Monday. Eventually the second trough in the
Plains should progress eastward on Monday afternoon and Tuesday
with increasing rain chances mainly north of I-59. Models continue
to indicate a cold front that weakens on approach, and the
southern portions of our area may remain dry through Wednesday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT THU APR 25 2024

A weak front is slowly moving southward tonight, and currently
stretches from near Anniston to Tuscaloosa. Patchy fog is
possible south of the front, where moisture is slightly higher.
Reduced vis to MVFR/IFR is possible for a few hours, with MGM
being the most likely terminal to be impacted.

Any fog lifts with sunrise, with winds remaining at or less than
5kt through the day. Isolated convection is possible Thursday
afternoon, but chances at any terminal are too low to include at
this time.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak front in the area will allow for isolated showers/storms
today through tonight. 20ft winds will light and variable today,
with minimum RH values of 30 to 35 in the northeast, and 35 to 45
percent, elsewhere. Friday, 20ft winds increase from the south at
6-12mph with minimum RH values above 35 percent. Rainfree
conditions continue through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     79  56  83  62 /  10  20  10   0
Anniston    80  58  82  62 /  10  20  10   0
Birmingham  81  61  83  64 /  20  20  10   0
Tuscaloosa  81  61  84  63 /  20  10   0   0
Calera      80  61  82  63 /  20  20  10   0
Auburn      80  62  82  63 /  20  10  10   0
Montgomery  84  61  85  65 /  20  10   0   0
Troy        83  60  85  64 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...14