Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 260549
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1249 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
Issued at 1049 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2024

Organized line of thunderstorms was entering eastern Mississippi
at this writing. It appears the storms are close to the advertised
timing affecting northwest areas between 11 and midnight and
slowly moving eastward. MLCAPE values near 500 in south
Mississippi and will continue to get pinched off as the storms
move eastward. It appears the threat of a tornado will be limited
to far west and southwest areas near the state line. Due to the
high winds off the surface and aloft, the storms may provide a
conduit for momentum transfer and the threat of damaging winds.
These winds may be enhanced just ahead of the storms and along the
storms. Storm total rainfall still looks in the 1-2 inch range
for most areas with the possibility of locally higher amounts.
Since it will be in a short period of time, some flooding threat
will be possible. Overall, the storms will lose intensity as time
progresses and the farther east the storms move.

75

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2024

Key Messages:

-Windy conditions will affect all of central Alabama into Tuesday
 morning. Wind gusts 35 to 45 mph are possible.

-Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for areas near and
 east of I-65. The best chances will be west and southwest near
 Demopolis, Eutaw, Tuscaloosa, and Aliceville. The main threats
 remain damaging wind and tornado.

The CAM model trend over the past 12 hours has slowed the
convective development and its eastward motion down. The latest
timing graphic has already been adjusted late this afternoon with
the risk starting around midnight and getting to just east of
I-65 by around 6am. The latest radar depictions are also backing
these solutions with the line of storms near the Ark-La-Miss at
730 pm. Additionally, the moisture return becomes pinched off as
it enters western Alabama. This will significantly affect the
instability that is available. This will certainly limited the
coverage of any severe threat overnight. Shear is certainly not a
problem, so monitoring the mesoscale will remain a high priority.
Due to the pressure gradient and the winds just above the
surface, the Wind Advisory has been extended to the entire area
with gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible. Storm total rainfall has been
decreasing for a few days and it looks like most areas observe
1-2 inches. Most locations should be able to handle that rainfall,
unless it all happens in a very short period of time.

The main message remains the same with thunderstorms overnight.
Just some small changes to the timing. Stay weather aware during
the overnight hours.

75

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2024

By Tuesday evening, the cold front will be to our southeast with
clouds continuing to decrease through the night. Wednesday, a
short wave rounding the main trough axis will allow a surface low
to strengthen along that cold front. Models have trended this
strengthening closer to the Carolina coast. This will keep Central
Alabama dry on Wednesday, except maybe a sliver of the extreme
southeast where a few showers are possible.

With the main trough axis moving to the east of the area, upper
level ridging will build across the Plains and high pressure
slides into the Southeast by Thursday night. Clear skies and
calming winds will allow temperatures to cool into the mid 30s
across the north, with patchy frost possible Friday morning.
Elsewhere, lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Through the weekend, upper level flow becomes zonal, with the
surface high centered to the east of Central Alabama. Westerly to
southwesterly flow through the low to mid levels will allow
temperatures to moderate, with mid 70s to lower 80s expected for
the weekend. Dry air and ridging will keep the area rain free.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2024

A line of showers and some thunderstorms will move across central
Alabama overnight into Tuesday morning. This area is expected to
slow down as it moves toward I-65, so the timing is a bit tricky.
The area will move into TCL/BHM/EET within the next few hours.
Added a tempo for these locations where it appeared at this time
the best chance for thunder. The instability will be to the south,
so will have to monitor activity toward MGM/TOI with time. Winds
will remain quite gusty ahead of the line and will increase in
the vicinity of the line. Some gusts close to 35 kts are expected.
The wind direction will be southeast much of the period before
becoming light after 00z. Since the winds at 2k feet will
increase just above 50kts, held the LLWS for BHM and added EET.
Ceilings start MVFR at spots while others will be VFR. This
quickly changes as all areas drop to MVFR/IFR by 09z. The showers
and ceilings will hang on for several hours behind the line but
clearing begins by afternoon west to east.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A frontal boundary will approach the area tonight, with an area of
rain and thunderstorms arriving overnight. The front and
associated rains will move through Central Alabama through
tomorrow morning. Southeasterly 20ft winds remain elevated ahead
of the front, at 20-25mph overnight. Winds gradually diminish
through the day on Tuesday, before turning to the northwest the
north by Wednesday morning, at 5-8mph.

Moisture increases ahead of the front tonight, followed by drier
air arriving by Wednesday. Minimum RH values will be in the 38 to
48 percent range Wednesday afternoon. Minimum RH values will fall
below 30 percent both Thursday and Friday afternoons.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  47  69  43 / 100  10  10  10
Anniston    69  49  70  44 / 100  10  10  10
Birmingham  70  48  68  44 /  90  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  73  48  70  44 /  60   0   0  10
Calera      70  49  70  44 /  90  10  10  10
Auburn      68  53  74  48 / 100  30  10  10
Montgomery  71  52  73  47 / 100  10  10  10
Troy        72  53  75  48 / 100  20  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-Pickens-
Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Jefferson-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Randolph-
Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...75


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