Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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539 FXUS64 KBMX 021744 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1244 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 Another warm day on tap across Central Alabama with plenty of sunshine and temperatures reaching the upper 80s in most places. The combination of very warm temperatures and a weak surface boundary that stretches from near Tupelo to Auburn could result in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. Fair this evening with no rain expected. A short wave trough currently over Texas and Oklahoma will track eastward today and tonight. Showers with embedded storms will impact areas along and north of I-20 after midnight. The rain cooled air mass will push southward on Friday triggering numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms to areas north of I-85. Any storms that develop are expected to remain below severe limits today through Friday. 58/rose && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 203 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 We will continue to see a shortwave slide through the area Friday night in Saturday. This along with the subtropical jet streak nosing in, we should see scattered to numerous showers and storms into Saturday morning. The highest chances will be in the north where heights will be lower. Overall dynamics are weak with this system so severe weather is not expected. Sunday into Monday ridging will strengthen ahead of a deep trough moving into the western CONUS. Rain chances will decrease, but there will still be some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity with elevated PWATs combined with weak shortwaves and daytime heating. Ridging and associated warm air aloft increases further on Tuesday as a deep upper low ejects out over the Northern Plains. This should result in dry conditions with 90 degree temperatures becoming more common across the southern counties as low-level southwesterly flow strengthens for end of this period. 16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 2 2024 VFR conditions will persist areawide through tonight. Expect high to mid level clouds to increase from the west from later this afternoon through the overnight as a series of mid-level disturbances gradually weaken as they approach the area from the west. There will be enough forcing to support a small chance for showers this afternoon, but chances are too low to include at any terminal location. Winds will increase from the south and southeast at 5-10 kts. Later tonight, shower chances will increase from the northwest with activity slowly advancing east toward TCL/BHM first very early Friday morning with rain chances for the rest of the northern sites through midday. Expect increasing mid- level clouds with some low- level clouds possible early Friday morning with some patchy fog potential southwest before sunrise. Chances for showers will be too low to include at MGM/TOI through this cycle. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Min RHs will be in the 30s again this afternoon with 20 foot winds from the south around 5-7 mph. A few isolated showers may develop during peak heating this afternoon, but chances remain low. Moisture increases on Friday as a system moves into the area. RH values will fall into the mid to upper 30s in the southeast, with 40s elsewhere. 20 foot winds from the south around 4-6 mph. Good overnight recoveries are expected each night. Scattered showers/storms return for Friday afternoon in the northwest and spread east through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 64 85 62 83 / 30 50 70 60 Anniston 64 85 63 83 / 20 40 60 60 Birmingham 67 84 64 83 / 30 50 60 50 Tuscaloosa 68 84 64 84 / 30 50 50 40 Calera 66 84 65 83 / 20 40 50 50 Auburn 65 85 67 83 / 10 20 40 50 Montgomery 65 87 66 86 / 10 20 30 40 Troy 63 87 65 87 / 10 10 20 40 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...05