Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 261119
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
619 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A broad area of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue
to push across the Tennessee Valley early this morning. A line of
slightly deeper convection was currently noted just wast of the
I-65 corridor as of 08z. This feature may continue to mix down
some gusty winds of 40-50 MPH from aloft as it pushes across the
area over the next 2-3 hours. However, the main impact from winds
will be the gradient (non-thunderstorm winds) due to a strong LLJ
lifting NE across the region of the next few hours. The good news
is that there is no surface-based instability and extremely
meager elevated CAPE. Thus, the risk for any severe storms is
extremely low through the remainder of the predawn hours.

Precipitation chances will gradually taper off from west to east
this morning into the early afternoon, dropping from medium-high
(60-100%) at daybreak to low (10-30%) by midday as the front
shifts east of the area. Winds will also drop off quickly after
12z and will therefore we will expire the Wind Advisory at 7 AM.
As drier air pushes into the region in wake of the frontal passage
clouds will also disperse and clear conditions are forecast by the
end of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday Night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Clear conditions overnight as a cool, dry air mass settles into
the area. However, the still tight pressure gradient should keep
winds in the 5-10 MPH range which will keep the boundary layer
mixed enough to keep lows in the lower 40s and prevent any
formation of frost late tonight into early Wednesday morning.
Cool, dry conditions will continue both Wednesday and Thursday as
a secondary mid/upper trough swings across the Deep South. Highs
in the 60s will be common both days under mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies. Cloud cover Wednesday night will likely keep lows in
the upper/mid 40s, but a good setup for radiational cooling
Thursday night cloud drop lows in the mid/upper 30s -- and result
in the need for a Frost Advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A strong area of high pressure to the west will shift eastward
across the Tennessee Valley and Deep South on Friday, resulting in
sunny/dry conditions and the beginning a pronounced warming trend
as highs return to the upper 60s to lower 70s. This ridge will
amplify during the upcoming Easter holiday weekend and into early
next week. The end result will be ample sunshine and continued
warm/dry weather. Highs will climb into the mid/upper 70s
forecast both Saturday and Easter Sunday -- with lower 80s
potentially in the cards for us on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

SHRA are continuing to produce MVFR conditions at KHSV due to
reduced visibilities and low ceilings. SHRA will gradually taper
off over the next 2-3 hours, with some improvements to VFR
conditions occurring at KMSL by the late morning and KHSV by the
early afternoon as cloud cover scatters out. The sky will
eventually clear this afternoon and especially by this evening
and overnight. Winds have also dropped to 10 kts or less and will
gradually veer from the SSW to the west and eventually NW late in
the day in wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....AMP.24
LONG TERM....AMP.24
AVIATION...AMP.24


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