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000
FXUS64 KJAN 170657
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
157 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Tonight and Wednesday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed the circulation around a nearly stacked low over eastern
Nebraska. This nearly stacked low will continue tracking northeast
across the Great Lakes region through Wednesday and drag a weakening
cold front into the northwest portions of our CWA this evening. This
cold front will become more east-west oriented as it sags and then
stalls near our Highway 82 corridor Wednesday. Our airmass will
continue to moisten ahead of this approaching weak cold front this
afternoon and evening. There will be low chances of rain over our
northwest most zones later this afternoon and evening until the cold
front actually moves into our CWA this evening. Rain chances will
increase across our northern zones tonight into Wednesday morning
before decreasing from the west Wednesday during the afternoon.
Although a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out across our north
Wednesday the chance for any severe storm appears too low to
mention. Temperatures will continue warmer than normal tonight and
Wednesday. /22/

Thursday through next Wednesday...

By Wednesday night into Thursday, mid-level zonal flow will increase
across the Lower Mississippi Valley Region before a weak shortwave
moved through Thursday afternoon. At the lower levels, a high
pressure is progged to develop in the Gulf of Mexico, which will
build weak ridging into the CWA, allowing for shallow moisture to
hang tight across the region. This will increase the potential for
isolated showers and storms across the CWA, with the highest
potential north of I-20, where only a scattered chance (25-35%)
looks to exist through the end of the week. The potential for
stronger storms will exist on Thursday as the boundary increases
instability across the CWA. For now, we will not advertise any risk
for severe storms, but a future update could increase that risk.
Stay tuned for more information. Temperatures will also be several
degrees above normal, with highs in the lower to middle 80s and
overnight lows in the middle 60s.

By the weekend, another stronger shortwave will move into the
region, stalling a boundary over central MS. This will allow for
more widespread, scattered showers and thunderstorms across the CWA
on Saturday and Sunday. By Sunday afternoon into the evening, the
front will push through, lowering temperatures 10-15 degrees from
the previous week. Highs on Sunday will range in the lower 60s to
lower 70s, but begin climbing into the lower 70s on Monday and lower
80s on Tuesday. By Monday and Tuesday, W-NW flow will return across
the Lower Mississippi Valley, allowing for a calm start to the next
work week and into the middle of next week.  /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail, outside of scattered MVFR cigs at HBG &
PIB. Increasing low stratus deck is expected after 17/07-08Z for
areawide MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings, mainly at HBG & PIB, that
will persist through around 17/18-21Z today. Some SHRA is
possible north of I-20, but confidence in impacts from TSRA
remains low, with some psbl in the VC of GTR. Any SHRA will clear
out of most areas by 18/00Z & GTR around 18/01-03Z. Southerly
return flow will persist into the evening, leading to another
round of low stratus & psbl MVFR vsby/BR at PIB & HBG. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       80  66  83  66 /  30  10  20  10
Meridian      82  65  84  64 /  30  10  20  10
Vicksburg     81  68  83  66 /  20  10  30  10
Hattiesburg   84  66  84  66 /  10   0  10   0
Natchez       83  68  82  66 /  10  10  20   0
Greenville    80  68  82  66 /  30  10  40  50
Greenwood     79  68  83  67 /  50  10  40  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

22/AJ/DC