340
FXUS64 KJAN 291516 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1016 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Decaying MCS is the near term story for us. Moisture transport
and overall mid/upper support is well off to our SW/S in the Gulf
now and we won`t see recovery. Hi-res guidance has been downright
bad with the evolution of this system, thus the forecast is
suffering as starting guidance is way off on timing. I`ve mad a
lot of manual adjustments to help, but honestly, it`s still not
right. Look for additional changes to better match temps and
eventually changes to PoPs to show the exit of activity. Expect
less PoPs for tonight as I don`t see any recovery to support much.
Also, had to really reduce thunder wording as we just don`t have
instability to support that. We may see a bit this evening as some
forcing with the upper feature could help, but confidence is not
good with that as not sure about airmass recovery to support it.
Only thunder is really in our far SE 3 counties (Hwy 98) as the
leading edge of the cold pool forcing helps focus convection. This
is mainly from now until about noon-1p and there could be a brief
gust to 30-35 mph. /CME/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Today through tonight: A large mesoscale convective system will
continue to track east across the area early this morning, and it
should gradually weaken as it moves into a less favorable
thermodynamic environment. One concern with this decaying MCS
scenario is for a wake low wind event to take place, and current
upstream obs suggest this could be unfolding (e.g., El Dorado gusted
to 36 mph from the southeast). Will continue to monitor for
increased mesoscale wind potential, but overall, any remaining
severe threat looks marginal, and the progressive nature of the
diminishing MCS should help to limit the heavy rain potential. Going
through tonight, convective rainfall potential should continue ahead
of a shortwave trough passage this evening. There may be increased
fog potential for early Tuesday morning. /EC/

Tuesday through mid next week: Our area continues to be under a
late spring/early summer regime with a warm humid airmass in
place. Showers and thunderstorms will be a daily possibility,
driven by this humid airmass, as well as intermittent
disturbances. Through much of the week, ridging aloft will prevent
any airmass change. Moisture is ample to support diurnal
convection, though weak shear will limit any updraft organization.
Later in the week, a weak cold front attempts to push southward
and may bring briefly cooler temperatures, but significant airmass
change is unlikely. Rain and storm chances slowly decrease early
next week as we begin to warm even more with temperatures in the
upper 80s and perhaps some spots reach 90 degrees by mid next
week. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A decaying mesoscale convective system will move across the area
accompanied by mostly MVFR category stratus and TS potential as
we go through the morning, but expect a slight improvement later
this afternoon with a greater chance for reaching VFR category. By
late tonight, ceilings are expected to lower significantly, and
we may see a greater threat for IFR category ceilings, and perhaps
even some vsby reductions due to fog prior to daybreak. Overall,
southerly surface wind and stronger mixing should limit widespread
fog potential. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  62  82  62 / 100  60  10   0
Meridian      83  61  84  61 /  80  60  20   0
Vicksburg     76  63  84  63 / 100  30  10  10
Hattiesburg   82  64  86  64 / 100  60  30  10
Natchez       76  63  84  64 / 100  30  20  10
Greenville    75  64  82  63 / 100  40   0   0
Greenwood     75  63  82  62 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/EC/SAS