634
FXUS64 KLIX 020856
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
356 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A mid-level shortwave trough is ejecting off the southern Rockies this
morning which has initiated widespread deep convection across the
Southern Great Plains. This convection is providing a thickening
cirrus canopy which should mitigate strong radiational cooling
sufficient for widespread fog development for much of the area
with exception to the Pearl River Basin and coastal MS where skies
remain clearer. As such, a dense fog advisory has been issued in
these areas for the expectation of patchy dense fog redeveloping
around sunrise this morning.

We`ll continue to monitor the progress of the convective systems
nearing SW LA this hour, but CAM guidance has greatly backed off
this convection reaching our areas prior to the afternoon hours.
Propagation of these MCSs remains slower than forecast and
maintenance of this convection all the way into our areas is less
likely now. However, further redevelopment of convection during
the day today across east Texas could still provide some rain to
particularly northwest areas later in the day. As the shortwave
departs the area through the evening hours though it would be less
likely to see showers and storms creep further into the area as
subsidence begins to suppress maintenance of new convection. As a
result, will back down PoPs for areas especially along the coast.

Friday rain chances area much healthier areawide with showers and
storms gradually spreading over the area in association with a
weaker shortwave trough following along within the persistent
west-southwesterly flow of this longwave pattern. Impacts from
severe weather and excessive rainfall are overall minimal in
assocation with these two rounds of rain chances.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The long term looks rather hot and humid as we move deeper into
May. Aside from a few glancing blows from ejecting weak shortwaves
provide slight chances of rain in northern areas this weekend, the
longwave pattern amplifies once again with a deep west coast
trough enhancing mid-level ridging overhead. This will keep us
rain free, but still entrenched in persistent southeasterly flow
at the surface which will continue to pump gulf moisture through the
area. High mid-level temps and muggy overnight conditions will
also mean the potential for above normal high temperatures well
into the upper 80s to low 90s into next week. While not quite
record-breaking for most sites, it will certainly be feeling more
like we skipped ahead to June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Over the last hour or so, have seen MVFR ceilings...near
FL012...develop at several terminals. Combining that with the NBM
probabilities of visibilities of a mile or less around sunrise coming
in lower than earlier in the evening, it appears this will be more
of a low stratus event. Will be carrying IFR ceilings at most
terminals from 08 or 09z through about 14z, before improvement to
MVFR. Still seeing widely varying solutions regarding convective
expectations on Thursday. That includes the amount of areal
coverage, timing, and how far east storms make it before
dissipating. Primary threat appears to be during the afternoon
hours from about noon to 5 pm, mainly west of Interstate 55 and
north of Interstate 12. With the uncertainty, will carry VCTS at
KMBC/KBTR/KHDC. Beyond 00z Friday, MVFR ceilings likely for much
of the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Surface high pressure centered to our east over Southeast CONUS
will keep the coastal waters in persistent southeast winds of
around 10 knots through the weekend and into next week. Seas will
also be fairly persistent at 1 to 3 feet through the period.
Overall, no significant concerns to maritime operations are
anticipated through early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  65  78  64 /  60  40  60  20
BTR  85  70  82  68 /  60  30  50  10
ASD  85  69  84  67 /  30  10  30  10
MSY  84  72  84  72 /  30  10  20  10
GPT  82  70  82  69 /  20  10  10  10
PQL  84  68  84  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ039-076-
     079-080.

GM...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ070-071-
     077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...TJS