622
FXUS64 KLIX 031347
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
847 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Mosaic radar shows an MCS tracking east across the southern half
of Louisiana. Reflectivity and lightning strikes have been
steadily decreasing over the last couple hours, indicative of
weakening. CAMs and global models in agreement on this solution.
Even as it weakens, still expecting much of the local area to see
rainfall as this feature spreads east. Therefore, have modified
hourly rain chances to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The land of MCS`s. These disturbances are going all over the lee
side of the Rockies this morning and have been for a while. Another
weakening one is moving up from southern TX this morning with
another area that is starting up this morning over the NW gulf. The
weakening one will help with providing outflows to this new area of
development today. The old 850mb trough near the coast is still
hanging tough although weak and this trough is somewhat mirrored at
the sfc. This will provide an interface for this activity to
begin developing along today and this should start this morning.
This MCS type feature that develops eastward should collapse by
late morning or around noon spreading a strong outflow in all
directions over our area. This will help get other storms
developing as well. But what it will do is move some moderate to
strong winds(wake low) over the area again. At the moment, this
looks to be in the neighborhood of up to 40mph weakening with
time. Several variables do support the possibility of an isolated
severe storm with this MCS today but they are not at alarming
levels. CAPE values are not even close to being an issue so not a
lot of volatility to take advantage of. The problem is cloud cover
that should start to yield overcast skies by sunrise or after.
There is no advective component of CAPE, so it would have to be
through heating. Saturday on the other hand, will show a bit less
activity for our area, this will be due to a cold front moving
south from the high plains causing things to flow northward
including our weak coastal troughiness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Sunday will see this front to the north stall quick over Oklahoma
and Arkansas with a sfc low and attendant front move along it
dropping another trough(not a synoptic cold front as there is no air
mass diff) into the gulf south. This will help gets sh/ts activated
once again. This front gets sent back north Monday and remains well
north through mid week. Another frontal system will orient along the
plains states meridionally or at least roughly so. This is the
same as what we have been seeing for the last month, so back to
the same processes that were occurring. There is a hint that a
strong arctic cold front may actually make it to the gulf coast by
the end of next week. The word arctic is a bit misleading as
temps would be greatly modified behind it this time of year and
only drop highs from the upper 80s/low 90s back to low to mid 70s.
But that is not the issue with a frontal system like this, this
would be more of a problem with severe storms and flooding. That
is if it even reaches the gulf coast. But since this is far out on
the horizon, we will simply need to wait it out to see what
changes or remains the same.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Mainly IFR to LIFR cigs and vis this morning for most areas. This
will lift into VFR levels later this morning. There is enough of a
chance for each terminal to get a TSRA or two today so this will be
timed in the 12z taf set. There could be some low cigs again tonight
mainly north but most should see MVFR to IFR again overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Overall synoptic view will be an onshore flow with light winds.
But today could see another MCS feature get started to the west
and develop along the coast to the east before collapsing by late
morning. This could cause some strong winds to move over the
marine areas as another wake low feature forms today. There is no
indication that this same type of feature will form Saturday so
the light onshore flow should commence. This should be the case
each day through mid next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  64  86  65  84 /  30  30  10  40
BTR  69  89  69  87 /  20  20   0  30
ASD  68  87  69  86 /  20  10   0  20
MSY  72  87  72  86 /  20  10   0  20
GPT  70  85  70  84 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  68  87  67  86 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE