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000
FXUS64 KMEG 151723
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1223 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A ridge of high pressure will keep conditions dry today. Above
normal temperatures are expected to warm into the low to middle 80s.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the Midsouth tomorrow
(Tuesday) afternoon and continue into early Wednesday as a cold
front moves through the region. Some strong to severe storms are
possible. Sub-severe showers and thunderstorms will likely continue
Thursday into the weekend. A fairly stout cold front will knock high
temperatures down into the 70s across most of the area Friday and
60s by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Seasonably warm temperatures will continue today as a ridge shifts
across the area. Expect highs in the low to middle 80s with
overnight lows in the low low to middle 60s.

An upper-level low over California is expected to push east into the
Central Plains today and into the Upper Midwest tonight. A
tightening pressure gradient associated with an accompanying
surface low and the development of another low-level jet will
result in increased winds across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
NBM probabilistic guidance has a greater than 70% chance of
sustained winds greater than 25 mph Tuesday for most of northeast
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. The probability of wind gusts
of 40 mph or higher is greater than 70% covers a larger portion of
the Midsouth including all of the Mississippi River Valley, most
of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. A Wind Advisory
will likely be needed.

Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase across the
region later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as a cold front
slowly moves into the Midsouth. Some thunderstorms could be severe.
Current short-term trends suggest the convective environment will be
a low CAPE/high shear environment characterized by LREF ensemble
guidance featuring SB CAPE values between 400-800 J/kg and 0-6 km
shear in excess of 50 kts. Additionally, model soundings show slight
curvature in the hodographs to produce some sufficient helicity to
promote healthy updrafts. This should be sufficient for at least a
few severe thunderstorms Tuesday night with damaging winds as the
main threat and perhaps a tornado in this conditional environment.
Any outflow boundaries from storms earlier in the day could increase
the chance of a tornado during the evening hours when SRH is
expected to be maximized.

Instability is expected to increase Wednesday as the front continues
to slowly move through the region. However, shear will be somewhat
less and the more favorable upper-level support will shift off to
the northeast. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will remain
possible.

We should see a break in convective activity late Wednesday into
Thursday. However, At least a few showers and sub-severe
thunderstorms will return to the region Thursday afternoon and
continue into the weekend. The airmass behind the Tuesday/Wednesday
storm system is Pacific in origin, so no drastic cool down is
expected. Highs should remain in the low to middle 80s Wednesday and
Thursday. Another cold front is expected to usher in cooler
conditions by Friday. High temperatures are expected to be in the
mid 70s to mid 80s Friday and in the 60s by Sunday. Conditions look
cool and dry early next week as a trough shifts into Middle
Tennessee and surface high pressure builds into the middle
Mississippi River Valley.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Expect cirrus clouds to continue to move into the Mid-South today
ahead of a broad trough. Tonight, CAMs continue to develop
showers with the most recent runs supporting more widespread
activity. As such, included VCSH at MEM, MKL, and JBR. Otherwise,
VFR CIGs will prevail with gusty south winds returning after
sunrise.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ANS