Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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084 FXUS64 KMEG 031132 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 632 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 A series of upper-level disturbances will move across the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 7 days. This will result in the potential for showers and thunderstorms each day. Temperatures will average near normal to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s with lows in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends early this morning show showers and thunderstorms occurring near the Tennessee River. This activity is associated with a shortwave trough beginning to lift away from the Mid-South. Meanwhile, a couple of MCS`s are producing showers and thunderstorms over portions of Northeast Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. A mild and humid airmass is in place across the area with temperatures as of 3 AM CDT in the 60s. Short-term models including CAMs indicate nocturnal convection should continue to diminish over the area this morning. Another weak shortwave trough combined with leftover convective boundaries and diurnal instability may be sufficient to produce additional showers and thunderstorms during peak afternoon heating, especially east of the Mississippi River. HREF Grand Ensemble spread indicates surface-based CAPE values ranging generally between 1000-1800 J/kg while 0-6 km shear is expected to remain relatively weak around 20 kts. A couple of strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds, small hail, and localized heavy rainfall may be possible this afternoon. Subtle shortwaves within weak southwest flow aloft combined with an unstable airmass will produce additional showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South into the upcoming weekend. A small area of 0-6 km Bulk Shear values between 25-30 kts combined with sufficient instability may result the development of a few strong thunderstorms to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as a cold front approaches northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Confidence in the overall severe threat remains low for Saturday due to a lack of model consensus this morning. Long-term models indicate an active and unsettled pattern will continue across the Lower Mississippi Valley next week as the area continues to remain within broad southwest flow aloft. Increasing shear combined with a warm and unstable airmass suggest a potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorms may exist towards the middle of next week. This potential threat will continue to be monitored in subsequent model runs. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will likely be common across the terminals through the at least 18z. Some IFR ceilings may mix at times for a few hours this morning at MEM/MKL/JBR. Confidence is low in how convection will redevelop later today so have included VCTS remarks for now but may need to adjust forecast once trends become more clear. Low clouds may be more prevalent towards TUP tonight after 06z and have included MVFR ceilings for now. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...TAB