Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 290413
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1113 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Not as cold tonight. Expect lows tonight in the upper 30s to low
40s. We should get progressively warmer each day this week with
highs back near 70 by Friday and in the middle to upper 70s over
the weekend. Our next chance of rain will arrive early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A broad upper level high pressure ridge will build into the lower
Mississippi River Valley this weekend, bringing mild and dry
conditions to the Midsouth. High temperatures will range from the
lower 70s on Friday, to the upper 70s and lower 80s on Sunday.

Rain chances will return late Monday through Tuesday, as an upper
level disturbance and slow moving cold front move through the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Midday upper air analysis and GOES water vapor imagery showed an
upper ridge axis over the high plains. This feature will lift
into the MS River Valley on Friday, as a closed upper low drops
south along the CA coast. This upper low will deepen over the
Great Basin over the weekend, amplifying downstream ridging over
the MS River Valley. During this period, daytime highs over the
Midsouth will continue to warm, reaching the upper 70s to lower
80s on Sunday.

The western U.S. upper trough will consist of two to three smaller
constituent lows. Medium range models differ on the placement and
ejection timing of these smaller pieces of energy. But the
overall longwave trough, while positively-oriented, should remain
sufficiently progressive to bring height falls to the Midsouth by
Monday night. NBM deterministic brings 20-30 PoPs along and north
of the I-40 corridor Monday afternoon. Modest CAPE at or below
500 J/kg should be largely capped by an elevated mixed layer
(EML). By late Monday night into early Tuesday, this EML should
erode/shift east with height falls. At this time, there is not
much to add to the SPC Days 4-8 Convective Outlook. Tuesday`s
outlook will come down to timing of height falls and position of
the surface cold front, relative to daytime heating.

Cooler and dry weather will prevail midweek, following the passage
of a Pacific cold front late Tuesday. Northwest flow aloft will
transition to upper level ridging and milder temperatures by next
Friday, as the progressive spring pattern continues.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Light winds will
increase on Friday to south winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25
kts at JBR and 9-12 kts with gusts to around 20 kts elsewhere. A
developing low-level jet is expected to keep winds elevated
Friday evening.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC


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