084
FXUS64 KMOB 300844
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
344 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A fairly vigorous shortwave through axis is moving east across the
forecast area this morning, and has initiated another round of
showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over portions of the area,
especially down near the coastal areas of MS and AL. This newer
round of convection is somewhat limited in coverage however,
partially due to the stabilizing effect of the previous remnant MCS
boundary that moved across the area Monday evening. This area of
convection will spread east across the forecast area through the
morning hours, likely extending further inland with heating after
sunrise as the shortwave axis continues east across the area. The
orientation of the rain axis will allow for some training of heavier
cells, with some brief heavy rainfall rates possible at any one
location as the precip moves east across the area. Some brief
localized ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas could
be possible this morning, but no widespread flooding is expected.
Severe storms are not expected. By early this afternoon, the
shortwave axis will be east of our area and rains will end and skies
will begin to clear from west to east. Low to mid level ridging will
build over the forecast area in the wake of the shortwave, and no
rain is expected from late this afternoon through Wednesday. High
temperatures today should be in the lower 80s for most locations,
but some mid 80s over interior southeast MS (where we will likely
see longer duration of direct sunshine) and only mid to upper 70s
near the beaches with a moderating onshore wind flow coming in off
the Gulf. Lows tonight mainly in the lower 60s, but some upper 60s
to lower 70s possible along the beaches and barrier islands. It will
be warmer on Wednesday, with highs ranging from the mid and upper
80s over most interior locations but low to mid 80s closer to the
coast. DS/12

&&

.SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

n the wake of an exiting shortwave trough over the Southeast, an
upper ridge builds north over the eastern Conus. Deep layer
southerly flow becomes organized through the latter half of the
week, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The influx of moisture is well
west of the forecast area mid week, but shifts eastward into the
weekend. A series of shortwave troughs pass Friday through Sunday.
The upper ridge maintains enough strength to deflect the bulk of the
energy north of the forecast area, limiting best PoPs to northwest
and northern portions of the forecast area with each passing trough,
along with limiting rain chances to isolated to low end scattered.
Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep temperatures above
to well above seasonal norms through the period. High temperatures
in the mid 80s to near 90 well inland with around 80s south of I-10
to the coast are expected. Low temperatures are expected to range
from around 60 to the low 60s north of Highway 84 to mid 60s/upper
60s closer to and along the coast.
/16

&&


.MARINE...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Strong winds that resulted from a wake low Monday evening
are rapidly subsiding over the marine area. Seas offshore, up to
around 5 feet this morning, could be hazardous to small craft, but
by this afternoon and through the remainder of the week no hazards
are expected. Winds and seas will continue to decrease this morning,
with a light southwesterly flow anticipated by this afternoon. High
pressure passing over the area midweek will lead lighter and more
variable winds. A light onshore flow will then develop over the
marine area for the latter part of the week and into the early part
of the weekend. DS/12


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  64  87  64  86  65  85  65 /  20   0  10   0   0   0  10  10
Pensacola   79  66  84  66  84  67  83  67 /  40   0  10   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      79  68  82  67  84  69  82  70 /  30   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   84  61  88  59  91  62  89  63 /  50   0  10   0   0   0  10  10
Waynesboro  84  60  88  60  90  63  86  63 /  10   0  10   0  10  10  20  10
Camden      82  61  86  59  90  63  86  63 /  30   0  10   0  10   0  10  20
Crestview   83  62  89  60  91  61  89  62 /  50  10  10   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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