287
FXUS64 KSHV 200253
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
953 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

As of 9:00 PM CDT, temperatures are approaching the upper 70s
under mostly clear skies and light southeasterly winds.
Temperature minimums will reach the upper 60s/lower 70s as a
result with patchy fog still possible due to light/variable winds
and dew points in the 60s. With weather and observed trends
continuing as anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not
necessary at this time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Nice Summer pattern for us with surface high pressure to our east
and rising heights aloft. Our KSHV VAD winds are getting nice deep
SE flow up into the midlevels, compared to a more easterly flow
earlier today noted on our 12Z sounding. Even the freezing level
is up to 14.5kft this morning. We have broad, scattered to broken
Cu field areawide with bases up near an inversion at 6kft. This
pattern will continue again to start the new week and even linger
into Tuesday as the upper ridging refocuses over the lower MS
River valley. Of course, this will keep our air temps well above
average for mid to late May, where mid 60s and mid 80s are the
"norm". It was 88 at noon in TXK and SHV today with 92/93
respectively so far. However, now that the cu field is going
broken over NW LA and we may be done there. The overnight will see
skies become fair with a touch of patchy fog with the overall the
soil moisture on decline. And it looks like the lower 90s will
persist all week, especially along and south of I-20. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The upper ridging will spread it`s axis over the SE U.S. this
week, but remain anchored over Mexico at 594dam. The long wave
pattern over the western U.S. along with a few core lows will
consolidate over the front range with a tightening gradient and a
single core low at 555dam just north of the 4 corners. This will
be generating and sending short wave energy around in the deep
pattern. This coupled with a much better return flow off the Gulf
that will develop for us with the first short wave nudging over
the OK/TX panhandles Tuesday late with a chance for some
convection to work into our I-30 corridor overnight.

It all comes together with much better TS coverage which will
unfold during midweek with the storm track off the front range
focused on the plains and eventually middle MS River valley, but
still close enough to allow convection to persist, both
nocturnally and diurnally to wrap up the work week. The Storm
Prediction Center has a Slight Risk look on their days 4 and
especially day 5 blanketing a good portion of our area. And the
Weather Prediction Center highlights our northern half with
Slight and Marginal Risks in the days 4/5 EROs on Wednesday late
and again on Thursday into early Friday.

A little bubble surface high at 1017mb will be quite sufficient
to bottle up and pool moisture during midweek for us and again
late week replaced by a 1014mb air mass riding over the mid MS
River valley. These coupled with convective forcing with cool
pooling and of course daytime heating will bring a good scattering
of convection our way and perhaps see even numerous coverage at
times, mainly north of I-20. However, no wind shifts for us with
the summer-like readings edging back a bit to upper 80s across
our north anyway with the added clouds. For those looking farther
ahead, a third surface ridge will be much stronger at 1024mb over
the plains early next week, so we should keep at least isolated
activity going this weekend, with a renewed focus for ArkLaTex
convection just after the holiday weekend to top off our already
very full May rain buckets. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

For the 20/00Z TAF period, mostly clear skies expected overnight
with scattered CU near 6kft expected to develop on Monday.
Otherwise, light southeast winds around 5 knots tonight to
become south and increase to 5 to 10 knots on Monday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  92  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  68  93  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  66  89  67  88 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  70  92  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  66  91  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  70  91  72  89 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  69  91  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  70  92  70  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...05