National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KJAX 200655
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
255 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GA
LATE TODAY...
...NEAR RECORD HEAT TODAY...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Currently, temps are in the 60s to around 70 with light west
winds. Dewpoints in the 60s and the light winds combined with
subsidence producing some patchy radiation and advection fog over
the inland northeast FL area. This fog will shift eastward
over course of the next few hours.

Flow aloft is nearly zonal, but an upper level trough over the
southwest CONUS will translate eastward, and attempt to phase
with energy across the northern U.S. embedded in a long wave
trough. Heights across the southeast U.S. are expected to decrease
and models show weak embedded shortwaves moving into our area in
mainly zonal flow this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold
front. The cold front looks to be positioned across SC to central
GA to south central AL this morning, and will move slowly
southeastward through tonight into our area. The front may drop
to around the FL/GA border by late tonight. The frontal boundary
combined with lift from shortwave energy will support isolated to
scattered convection. Some potential for a strong storm or two
mainly over northern most zones, given adequate effective shear of
up to 25-30 kt and MLCAPE reaching upwards of about 800-1400 J/kg
late today and tonight. Main threats will be strong gusty winds
and marginally severe hail. Timing may be more toward evening
hours and possibly til about 1-2 AM tonight. SPC has highlighted a
marginal risk of severe storms from Waycross northward through
tonight.

Higher than normal max temps today with upper 80s to possibly lower
90s in a few spots and will be close to record levels. Notes
in the climate section.

Tonight, isolated to scattered convection expected through the evening
over the north zones, with activity shifting west to east. Expecting
a downward trend in intensity and coverage after midnight. Some patchy
fog possible overnight but looks fairly low chances at this time.
Lows tonight mainly in the 60s, warmest readings over the north
portions due to clouds and some precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The cold front will sit near the FL/GA state border on Sunday,
allowing for a decent range in high temperatures, inland SE GA
will see highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, with NE FL reaching
the mid to upper 80s, potentially reaching 90 near the St. Johns
river basin. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin in the
morning for SE GA, spreading southward throughout the day, with
the greatest coverage over SE GA in the afternoon and evening
hours, shifting eastward overnight. Storms will slowly move south
and eastward throughout the day on Monday as the front moves
southward, with most of the area clear by sunset. Monday will be
much cooler, with highs only reaching the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Dry weather will be in place for the rest of the week behind the
cold frontal passage as high pressure builds. A gradual warm-up in
temperatures is expected throughout the week, by Wednesday SE GA
and NE FL outside of the immediate coast will see high
temperatures back in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail at this time, but some chances for fog and
a low cig for VQQ and GNV in a few hours, with best chances at GNV.
Confidence in this is low to medium at this time, but satellite
imagery and a few nearby observations beginning to show some potential
over the few hours for GNV. After any fog and low cig dissipate
by about 12z-14z, prevailing VFR conditions expected through the
daytime hours. HOwever, there is some potential for isolated
shower or thunderstorm mainly from JAX to SSI late today and this
evening. Have shown VCTS or VCSH for now. Sfc winds will be light
southwest to west early this morning, then increasing to near 5-10
kt by late morning. An Atlantic sea breeze begins to shift winds
at SGJ and SSI by 17z-18z and CRG by about 21z-22z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Light west to southwest winds this morning will begin to turn southerly
this aftn as the sea breeze develops. A slight ramp up in winds
expected this evening before turning offshore again. Cold front
will begin to enter the area waters Sunday and then shift well
south of the area Monday. Small craft advisory conditions may
begin as early as Sunday night as northerly winds increase. SCA
looks probable for Monday til Tuesday, with winds dropping of
during the day on Tuesday, though seas will remain elevated. Winds
and seas continue to be diminish by Wednesday as high pressure
ridge will dominate the area by then.

Rip Currents: A low-end moderate risk is placed in for northeast
FL with swells of about 2 ft with periods about 10 seconds. Lower
end risk for southeast GA beaches for today. Somewhat lower risk
appears in place for Sunday given mostly an offshore wind and
smaller swell heights.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Max temps around 90 degrees can be expected at local climate sites
today, 4/20, and will be close to record levels, mainly for
JAX and CRG.

                        Record High     Average 1st date
                        Saturday 4/20   to Reach >= 90F

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)   92/1995         April 25
Craig Field, FL (CRG)    91/2002         April 22
Gainesville, FL (GNV)    94/1892         April 21
Alma, Georgia (AMG)      93/1968           May 2

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  66  78  53 /  40  30  70  50
SSI  86  67  81  56 /  20  30  60  60
JAX  90  65  86  57 /  20  20  50  70
SGJ  89  64  88  61 /  10  10  30  60
GNV  89  61  85  59 /  10   0  30  50
OCF  89  61  85  63 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$