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162
FXUS63 KJKL 141347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
947 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will be around through Wednesday
  with a lull on Thursday then renewed chances to close out the
  week.

- A few of the thunderstorms that develop later this afternoon and
  into the evening could be strong with damaging wind gusts the
  main threat.

- Near, to a little above, normal temperatures are expected
  through the work week but with a cool down on Wednesday owing to
  the showers around.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 947 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024

The morning surface analysis shows an area of low pressure pushing
east across the Bootheel of Missouri and upper low not far behind
in the heart of Missouri. These features will continue to slide
eastward today across Kentucky. Ahead of these features we see
multiple lines of convection pushing across parts of western and
central Kentucky this morning. The first broken line of showers
and occasionally a thunderstorm will push toward the Cumberland
Valley over the next hour. This as a notable outflow pushes east
and additional storms are developing just to the south along and
near the Cumberland Plateau of Tennessee that will push northward
toward parts of eastern Kentucky. Overall this will lead to a good
shot of showers and thunderstorms (80-90 percent chance)
especially this afternoon and evening. While there is a risk of a
strong storm or two, the latest guidance showing overall lesser
chances and this could very well be due to more expansive cloud
cover that would limit the destabilization. Overall forecast was
on track, but did adjust PoPs to better match the latest obs and
trends. Outside of this only minor adjustments were needed to
blend in this latest obs.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024

Just a quick update to the forecast mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor tweaks have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows a large area of low pressure west of the
state and impacting the area early this morning. This is
responsible for the scattered light showers passing through
eastern Kentucky under cloudy skies and amid light southeast
winds. Temperatures and dewpoints are fairly uniform across
eastern Kentucky this morning given the moist environment -
running in the mid to upper 50s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue to be
in excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of
the forecast. They all depict a slow moving upper low easing into,
and across, the state through midweek. Southwest mid level flow
through tonight will continue to moisten the environment over the
JKL CWA while the best energy associated with the trough arrives
towards midnight. The rest of the trough crosses this part of the
state on Wednesday - a tad slower in the ECMWF components compared
to the ones of the GFS and NAM. The model spread has increased a
bit with their recent runs but is still relatively small so the
NBM was used as the starting point for the short term grids along
with the incorporation of the CAMs` details for PoPs and timing
through the period.

Sensible weather features a damp 48 hours, or so, as a stacked
ares of low pressure slowly works through the Ohio and Tennessee
valleys. This will mean plenty of clouds and times of showers and
a few thunderstorms from time to time. A bit of a lull in the
convection this morning will end later this afternoon as a band of
showers and storms are expected to work in from the west. A few
of the storms could become organized into the evening owing to
ample instability as CAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg develop with good
turning and venting of the winds with height - yielding a
moderately sized curved hodograph. Damaging wind gusts will be
the main threat from these. The shower and storm chances remain
high through the night and into Thursday morning as the upper
system`s energy moves through the area. Precipitation chances also
peak during the afternoon, Wednesday, when the sfc low pushes on
through with more limited instability owing to the abundance of
rain cooled air. Likewise, the moist air tonight will keep
temperatures uniform and mild along with areas of fog around.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point consisted of
adjusting the NBM PoPs to include CAMs details for shower and
thunder chances through Wednesday afternoon. Given the high RH,
temperatures and dewpoints from the NBM were not adjusted much.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 547 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024

The models are in general agreement with an active long wave pattern
to continue over the CONUS through the extended portion of the
forecast. Detail differences become more apparent with time,
especially by this weekend and early next week. A closed low will be
moving over the Mid-Atlantic region Wednesday night, with short
wave ridging working into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into
Thursday. This will result in a relative lull in the shower
activity across eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, a trough will be
traversing the central CONUS. The southern stream portion of the
trough will move from the southern Plains/middle Mississippi
Valley to the Ohio Valley and middle/southern Appalachians
through this weekend, with a transiting surface cold front. This
will allow for another period of higher rain chances for our area.
Again, there are timing and amplitudinal differences concerning
this short wave, so have not strayed too far from the blended
guidance. Overall, the highest PoPs will occur Friday into Friday
night, associated with the better moisture and forcing, before
gradually lessening and becoming more diurnally influenced each
successive day. As such, did lower the PoPs a bit more
aggressively during the overnight periods. Temperatures will
average above normal through early next week, with highs
moderating from the upper 70s from Thursday through Saturday, to
the lower 80s for Sunday and Monday. Lows will average from the
mid to upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2024

Conditions start off a mix of MVFR and VFR as a few light showers
are still lingering in the east but most of the area precipitation
free. CIGs will lower to MVFR at most sites by 15Z, with KSME and
KLOZ likely seeing the lower heights. The better coverage of
showers and/or thunderstorms looks to hold off for most locations
until late this morning and especially for the afternoon, when a
more defined upper level disturbance rotates in from the west.
Conditions will then further deteriorate into the night as both
CIGs and visibilities fall through the MVRF category and then into
IFR by midnight, most places. Light winds early this morning will
pick up from the south and increase to between 5 to 10 kts by
noon - diminishing again after dark.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF