Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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541 FXUS63 KJKL 250250 AAA AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1050 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1050 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 Did a quick update mainly to touch up the T and Td grids per the latest obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 835 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 00z sfc analysis shows low pressure moving past to the southeast with northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph in its wake. Scattered to numerous showers are pivoting through eastern Kentucky this evening with mainly light amounts of QPF. Earlier a few in cloud lightning flashes were noted over McCreary County, but this threat has diminished with sunset. As a result, have updated the grids to take out the thunder and also fine tune the PoPs, Wx, and fog through the night. Currently, temperatures are in the the mid 50s north and west to the the low 60s in the far southeast while dewpoints are generally just a couple of degrees lower under cloudy skies. Did also update the T and Td grids through the evening per the latest obs and trends. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. A freshened set of zones and HWO have been issued, as well. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 404 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 Forecast is fairly straight forward this afternoon. Storm system responsible for all the the rain of recent is centered over central Kentucky and is moving slowly eastward. Beginning to see activity intensifying to our south and east as well. Thus can not rule out some thunder across portions of the area through early evening, pretty much in line with the inherited forecast. Winds will shift out of the northwest behind the exiting system overnight. Cooler air filtering into the region during the short term will keep temperatures below normal levels, but drier weather will begin to work its way into the area. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 A shortwave will pass across Tennessee on Thursday and models starting to come into better alignment on this system. This means precipitation chances are increasing for the southern and southeast Kentucky areas as the system will be close enough to yield some rain showers. This activity will linger into Thursday night. A moisture starved cold front will then cross the area on Friday. GFS continues to be the most aggressive with a few showers possible during the day. However, most areas will likely stay dry on Friday. High pressure will then build in for the weekend. Some quasi- cooler 850mb temperatures will spread into the area Sunday and Monday behind another push of colder air, but with little cloud cover, not sure we will see much impact from this push of cooler air. The biggest impact may come during the overnight hours where we could squeeze out some lows in the 30s Sunday night. Overall the weekend is looking fantastic with highs near 70 under sunny skies. Dry weather will then carry us into Tuesday with return flow allowing for a modest warmup early next week. We could be looking at temperatures making a run at 80 by Monday or Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018 A large and stacked weather system over the TN and OH valleys continues to rotate to the east, at present centered southeast of the state. Showers associated with this continue to pivot through the area - more consistent in the south and east than the northwest. Flight conditions will generally deteriorate through the evening and overnight as the upper system slips over the area. The poor aviation categories will be mainly from the CIGS as they drop into IFR/LIFR territory. Winds will generally be light and variably but also turn to out of the northwest as the sfc low center continues to push eastward. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...RAY LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...GREIF

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