Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190005

National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

The forecast has been on track so far this evening. Will need to
update later in the shift to remove evening wording a make a few
adjustments to temperatures and what not. Ingested the latest obs
into the grids to establish new trends.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

Surface high pressure to our north on Sunday will transition off
the east coast tonight, while an upper low and an associated
surface system begin to head east from the plains. A return of
warm air advection/isentropic lift ahead of the system will
result in clouds returning tonight, but precip is expected to hold
off until Monday. On Monday, the surface low is forecast to track
east along the KY/TN border and eventually cause showers to
overspread the forecast area. Elevated instability is shown in
forecast soundings across our southern counties late in the day
and into the evening, and a mention of thunder has been included.
The surface low is expected to stall over the Appalachians Monday
night as coastal development takes over to the east. As the
initial upper low passes to our east, showers are expected to
diminish late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Tuesday night with an
active upper level pattern in place. A trough in place over the OH
Valley will make for active weather to begin the extended. A surface
low tracking across the TN Valley and lifting northeast will put
eastern Kentucky on the northern side of the low allowing for the
possibility of a wet snow. Surface temps look to be slightly warm
during this time from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. At this
time, model soundings show the colder air waiting until day break
Wednesday morning before enough colder air filters into eastern
Kentucky behind the surface low. Thus, will only expect around an
inch Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday in the lower
elevations but on the higher elevations above 2000 feet, up to 3
inches could not be ruled out. As the mentioned low exits for
Wednesday night, winds shift around to the northwest for a short
duration upslope snow shower event. Lack of consistency for Tuesday
night into Wednesday allows for a low confidence forecast as a few
degrees change in temperature will make for little to no snow or a
significant accumulation of snow.

By Thursday, high pressure moves into the area from the northwest
with a dry period expected for all of Thursday and into Thursday
night. The next weather maker develops and moves into the area fro
Friday. A surface low developing over the Plains will lift a warm
front into the area by Friday afternoon bringing the chance for
showers. Precip chance will remain along this boundary as it pushes
eastward through eastern Kentucky for Friday and Saturday. Thus will
expect the chance for showers fro all of Friday through the day on


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)

The TAF sites should see SCT to BKN high clouds to begin the
period. Lower level clouds will begin to overspread the area from
the south late between 7 and 9Z Monday, as a weather system
approaches from that direction as well. CIGs should descend to low
end VFR between 4 and 6K. Winds should be light and variable
during the period. A few rain showers, and perhaps an isolated
storm, are forecast to begin moving into the area late tomorrow




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