Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221540 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1140 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

Issued at 1125 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018

15z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into Kentucky as low
pressure pulls further away to the east. The winds are lighter
today as a result of the pressure gradient relaxing through the
area. Under sunny skies, temperatures have rebounded from chilly
morning lows in the lower 20s most places to reach the mid to
upper 30s. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper
20s. The snow patches show up quite well in the visible satellite
given the cloudfree skies - the melting from these should hold
back temps a bit in those areas. Have updated the forecast mainly
to fine tune temps and dewpoints through the afternoon - as well
as to adjust sky cover per the latest high res models into the
evening. These updated grids have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with the issuance of a fresh set of zones and the

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018

Forecast is on track. Just freshened up the grids with current
observations and blended into the forecast. No other changes were
needed. Updates have been sent to NDFD and to the web.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018

Snow showers have diminished and upper level ridging is taking
hold, along with surface high pressure moving in from the west. A
few areas, mainly in the southwest portion of eastern Kentucky,
could see some fog through the early morning. As the high pressure
moves in, the flow from the northwest will bring in cool air that
will keep high temps near mid 40s today. With the clear skies and
progression of the surface high pressure to the east, there is
potential for a ridge/valley temperature split tonight as well.
The ridges could get down near 30, whereas the valleys could drop
into the mid to low 20s. With the cold temps and dew points in the
mid to low 20s, it is possible for areas to see frost as well,
particularly in valleys.

As for Friday, the surface high pressure will be more to the
southeast of eastern Kentucky, so the return flow will warm up
temperatures during the day ranging from upper 40s to low 50s.
The only precip of note will enter the Commonwealth very late
Friday, but mainly affect the extended portion of the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 446 AM EDT THU MAR 22 2018

Flow will be backing aloft Friday night in response to a shortwave
trough sliding through the Great Plains into the Midwest. An
accompanying surface low will track toward the Commonwealth as deep
layer moisture increases along and ahead of a warm front,
resulting in precipitation overspreading eastern Kentucky into
Saturday. Expecting the Lake Cumberland region to remain liquid
rain at this point, with snow and potentially some sleet mixing in
at times elsewhere. Any threat for freezing rain looks very
minimal at this time owing to saturation maintaining itself in
the -10 to -20C layer. The wet nature of the snow that falls
should keep accumulations light for most locales with temperatures
hovering around freezing. Could see an inch or two in the
Bluegrass through portions of the Big Sandy region, but this will
largely depend on how quickly/far the warm front pushes into
eastern Kentucky. Temperatures should warm enough Saturday
afternoon to change all precipitation to rain, although a tight
gradient will likely exist with portions of the Bluegrass region
only topping out in the upper 30s while areas near the Tennessee
state line make it well into the 50s. Enough elevated instability
looks to be present over southeastern Kentucky to warrant some
thunder mention Saturday afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will cool Saturday evening and night as the surface low
pushes south into Tennessee. While moisture will scour out through
the night, may once again see a mix of snow/sleet, generally north
of Mountain Parkway. Accumulations should be confined to half an
inch or less as drier air filters in.

Following rain showers tapering off across southeast Kentucky Sunday
afternoon, a warmer and potentially drier period looks to be in
store for early week as shortwave ridging slides into the Ohio
Valley. Rain chances then look to increase by midweek as an upper
low digs into the Desert Southwest, placing eastern Kentucky in
southwest flow. Ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and eastern CONUS
will play a role in where the main band(s) of rain setup through the
week as temperatures warm into the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

LIFR fog currently impacting SME with at least IFR to MVFR
fog impacting other valley terminals this morning. Will see this
dissipate by mid morning as clouds continue lifting and thinning
out as high pressure builds in from the west. Northwest winds
will increase to 5-10 knots this afternoon, before diminishing
below 5 knots this evening. May see some increase in mid-high
clouds this evening and tonight, but any ceilings will remain in
the VFR category.




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