Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 222143
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
543 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

With activity now focused in the far east and south, have updated
to remove pops for much of the area through the evening hours. We
may see some isolated showers work in from the north this evening
and left some isolated pops in across the north mainly after 03z.
Otherwise, main focus for tonight will be on fog potential with
temperatures already around 70 in most areas and recent rainfall
adding into the equation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue to move through the
area this afternoon ahead of a surface cold frontal boundary
stretching roughly across Ohio and Indiana. This cold front will
slide southeast over the next 18 hours, passing to our south
Thursday morning. Last of showers will diminish across the higher
terrain to our southeast Thursday morning. Until then any
thunderstorms will be able to produce heavy rain, especially where
storms pass repeatedly over the same location. Have already had to
issue some flood products for portions of Pulaski as a result.

Otherwise, mid/upper ridging will build into the Midwest through
the short term providing a break in the unsettled weather we have
been experiencing on and off over the last few days. Temperatures
will continue to run above normal through the short term. We will
see highs climb to around 80 Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows
will drop into the low to mid 60s tonight and around 60 Wednesday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

The period will begin with upper level ridge stretching from the
Southeast US into Canada. This combined with surface high pressure
will keep the area mostly rain free through Thursday. This high
amplitude ridge will suppress through the period, as a short wave
trough develops across the Upper Midwest. Then by the end of the
period we could see some interaction from a tropical system
developing in the Gulf of Mexico. The weakening upper level ridge
and interaction with Gulf Moisture will allow for at least
isolated to even some periods of scattered thunderstorms for much
of the end of the period. Given the more summer like pattern the
peak chances would be in the afternoon and early evening with the
day time heating. The lack of shear will keep much of this
activity unorganized, and by the weekend into early next week the
PWATs increase such that more heavy rainfall could come from any
thunderstorms that develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect the area through the
first half of the period. A cold front will be passing through
the area tonight. Thus went with general showers and VCTS for much
of the afternoon. A second round of showers will be possible
overnight with FROPA. Only other concern will be light fog and
lower CIGS through the overnight. Winds will be generally light.
Weather improves through the day Wednesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY


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