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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KJKL 250521
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
121 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures persist through Thursday night, with a
  bit of frost in some valleys each night.

- A warming trend begins on Friday, with well above normal
  temperatures then expected to start the new week.

- Thunderstorms are possible late Friday afternoon and early
  Friday evening north of the Mountain Parkway and again area wide
  from late Monday through Tuesday evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024

The current forecast is on track so have mainly just added in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 830 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024

00Z sfc analysis shows low pressure moving off to the east while
high pressure is inbound from the northwest. This is working to
clear the fair weather cu clouds from the sky and, when combined
with slackening northwest winds will lead to decent radiational
cooling and a ridge to valley temperature split through the night.
Currently, readings are in the 60 to 65 degree range most places
while the dewpoints are running in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Look
for some patchy valley fog (and frost north of the Mountain
Parkway) to develop late tonight. Have updated the forecast mainly
to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and to
touch up the fog areas towards dawn. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 346 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024

A very quiet short term period is in store again. Surface high
pressure centered over eastern Ontario late today will slowly
pass by to our northeast, reaching New England late Thursday
night, providing us with continued fair weather in a cool and dry
air mass. Aloft, ridging over the high plains and troughing over
the eastern CONUS will gradually shift east, with the ridging
nearing our area late Thursday night.

As heating is lost this evening, our fair weather cu will dry up
and leave clear skies to last into Thursday. Slightly drier
low levels combined with warming above 850mb should pretty much
prevent cu on Thursday. However, high clouds will likely spill
through the upper level ridge into our area late Thursday and
especially Thursday night in advance of our next weather system.

Good radiating conditions each night will allow for chilly low
temperatures, especially in valleys. Increasing clouds could
eventually hinder radiating on Thursday night, but probably not
until very late. The largest ridge/valley differences are
forecast on Thursday night when a return of weak warm air
advection will help to hold ridges warmer. Lows should be cold
enough to allow for some frost in the coldest valleys each night,
especially our northern counties. However, it does not look to be
widespread so as to warrant an advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 PM EDT WED APR 24 2024

A large trough of low pressure aloft will be in place across the
western half of the CONUS to begin the period. Ridging aloft will
be in place from the western Great Lakes, the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, eastward to the eastern seaboard down to the Gulf of
Mexico. The models support a scenario where a warm front
associated with a strong Great Plains mid-latitude cyclone will
move into our area from the southwest late Friday morning or early
Friday afternoon. Showers and perhaps an isolated storm will form
and move through the area Friday, Friday night, into early
Saturday morning, as the warm front moves through. The activity
will shift to the north through out the day as the front passes,
and should be confined to an area north of the Mountain Parkway by
early Friday evening. The last bit of rain should be gone by
early to mid Saturday morning, after the parent surface low and
warm front have moved off to our north.

After the front and its parent low have moved away, a subtropical
ridge parked off the southeastern CONUS will strengthen and expand
westward. This ridge will keep the weather around eastern Kentucky
warm and dry over the weekend and into the first of next week.
Another area of low pressure will take shape over the western
Plains Sunday night into early Monday, but will be delayed in
moving into our area, as the stubborn southeastern ridge will be
stubborn to vacate the area. According to the latest models, the
ridge should finally begin to weaken and move off to the east
Monday afternoon, and should allow the central CONUS low to
finally move our way. We should see another round of rain moving
into the area Monday afternoon. This batch of rain is expected to
persist through the day on Tuesday, as the subtropical ridge will
still be exerting enough influence to keep the midwest cyclone
from making an assertive eastward push.

With the models having ridging in place a good portion of time in
the extended, the likelihood of much warmer than normal
temperatures is high. The scenario of rainfall being delayed after
Saturday morning also seem likely considering how strong the
models all have the weekend ridge as it builds westward.
Conditions will also be favorable for some modest ridge valley
temperature differences Saturday night and Tuesday night. No
major weather concerns in the extended forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024

High pressure brings VFR conditions and north to northwest winds
of generally less than 10 kts becoming northeasterly after 00z
Friday. Any fog late tonight will be confined to the river
valleys - and thus not affect the terminals - before clearing out
by 14z Thu.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC