Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161946

National Weather Service Jackson KY
346 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 242 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Eastern trough will continue to keep eastern Kentucky cold through
tonight. Current rain/snow shower activity will slowly taper of
flurries and sprinkles this evening before coming an an end. The
activity may hold on a bit longer than expected as the trough
remain fairly stout into the evening hours. While gradient will
remain tight tonight, allowing for some wind, temperatures should
get below freezing allowing the freeze warning to continue. The
lake wind advisory will also continue into this evening until
winds can diminish a bit.

The upper trough will start to lift out tomorrow with heights on
the rebound across the region. This will lead to generally clear
skies on Tuesday. However, decent mixing could keep winds rather
gusty out of the west. With the high pressure pushing across the
area Tuesday night, should see some nice ridge/valley splits.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Models are in good agreement with the upper level pattern through
the period. The period is expected to begin with shortwave upper
level ridging across the region with an upper level low over the St
Lawrence Valley, upper level low over the Plains/MO Valley a
ridge the Rockies an upper level low nearing the Pacific NW. The
shortwave upper level ridge will move move to the eastern seaboard
at midweek with high pressure extending from the eastern Pacific
across Mexico into the gulf of Mexico and portions of the
Caribbean. Meanwhile and upper level low will track into the
Great Lakes on Wed/Wed night and then merge with a shortwave
trough before meandering over the Northeast and into the Maritimes
through the start of the weekend. Locally, the 500 mb trough axis
associated with the upper level low moving into the Great Lakes
should move through the OH Valley and into the Appalachians from
late Wed into Thu. Initial upper level flow out of the west to
west southwest will become northwest on Thu with northwest
persisting across the region into Friday. Heights though should
begin to rise from late Thursday into Friday night as the axis of
an upper level ridge approaches. Then over the weekend, the axis
upper level ridge should dampen and shift to the southeast to end
the weekend while a shortwave trough passes by to the northeast
and another upper level low reaches the MS Valley on Sunday
evening and the Southeast on Monday.

At the surface, a developing warm front lifting into the Ohio Valley
will provide warm air advection Wednesday, as afternoon high
temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s. The upper level low
passing to our north and east will pull an associated surface low
into the Great Lakes, with an attendant cold front pushing into the
region late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Overall model trends
till indicate that upper level forcing will be quite weak and not
much in the way of moisture return, and therefore this will lead
to light QPF and low POP generally chances Wednesday afternoon and
evening. QPF with this appears minimal, less than a tenth of an
inch across the area.

In the wake of the front, expect colder weather to ensue once
again, as 850mb temperatures drop back below zero late Wed night
and Thursday bottoming out near -3C to -4C. Then, as the upper
ridge moves east, is and an associated area of surface high will
lead to another period of dry weather, with frost possible Friday
and Saturday mornings. There will be some modification to over the
weekend, with afternoon highs climbing back into the 60s for
Saturday and Sunday. Then as the southern stream upper level low
moves east toward the southeast, will lead to chances of showers
especially across the south late Saturday night into Sunday night
or early on Monday. QPF at this point looks minimal. Overall, the
weather should be much drier that what has been experienced from
late winter into early spring.

With the overall long range models are showing good agreement
agreement in the general synoptic patterns. There remains some
timing differences in the upper levels especially at the end of
the period this weekend. Given this have continued to stick closer
to the blended model data for most of the period with some
ridge/valley local affects for lows on Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

MVFR cigs will lift to VFR this afternoon before eroding through
the overnight hours tonight. Some clouds may hang on in northeast
Kentucky, but are expected to remain VFR. Gusty west winds will
subside this evening, and remain steady out of the west on


Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for KYZ051-052-

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for



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