Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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854
FXUS63 KJKL 180304
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1104 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

Sky condition has become the main uncertainty for the update.
Expected low cloud development has deviated a bit from what was
expected. The new 00Z NAM seemed to have at least some handle on
what was happening (more so than the forecast in place), and it
has been blended into the forecast for tonight into early
Wednesday. However, confidence is not high.

UPDATE Issued at 812 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

Winds have diminished and will no longer be a headline issue
tonight. Have blended latest obs into the forecast, and also
updated forecast sky cover based on 18Z model runs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...412 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

Gusty westerly winds developed through the afternoon, especially
over a swath of the forecast area generally north of the Mountain
Parkway and south of the I-64 corridor. Sustained winds have been
right around 20 mph and we`ve seen a couple gusts to around 35
mph on the Kentucky Mesonet. Will allow Lake Wind Advisory issued
for the Cave Run Lake area to run its course through 6 p.m. Winds
should begin to die down by then with the approach of sunset.

A warm frontal boundary will lift northward across the area
tonight. Clouds will develop over much of the area and help
moderate overnight lows across the area, keeping our typically
cooler eastern valleys well north of the freezing mark. High res
models and MOS suggest there is a potential for some isolated rain
shower activity as this feature moves through our area. Felt it
prudent to introduce some isold shower activity for late tonight.
Threat of rain subsides by sunrise Wednesday but increases again
late in the day as a cold front approaches. Gradient southwest
winds will increase through the morning, with the coal fields well
entrenched in the warm sector of this storm system. Would not be
surprised to see another Lake Wind Advisory issued tonight for the
day tomorrow. Gusty southwest winds will also send afternoon
temperatures up into the 70s before a cold front moves through
eastern Kentucky Wednesday night, providing another shot at cooler
weather to the area. This system will also provide another decent
shot at scattered rain showers Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

There will be an exiting cold front moving east of the region, with
a cold air mass filtering in. This combined with lingering low
level cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 50s for afternoon
highs Thursday. After this, a high pressure will begin to build
southeast across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. Given the cold
air mass and increasing subsidence would suspect is will be a
cold night on Thursday night, with frost and freezing temperatures
being the main concern. This area of surface high pressure and
rising heights will be the story through Saturday. This will allow
afternoon high temperatures to modify, but morning lows will
support frost and freezing temperatures in many locations
especially deeper valleys. A southern stream closed upper low
will progress into the Lower Mississippi River Valley by Sunday
and therefore did keep a slight chance of rain in portions of the
Cumberland Valley. However, the data has trended further south
with this feature overtime leading to drier period into early
next week, as we get stuck between the previously mentioned
system and a surface high moving east across the Great Lakes.
There could be slight chance of rain by late Tuesday, but
confidence remains lower on how this system will progress and
develop.

Overall the upper level pattern and mass fields are in reasonable
agreement in the model guidance, with some timing and development
differences particularly in regards to the southern stream upper
low. Did opt to adjust temperatures down for overnight lows, as
the valleys will likely be cooler than advertised by the blended
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 812 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2018

A warm front moving north through the region will bring an
increase in low clouds tonight, and a slight chance of showers
over the northern portion of the area. This will probably result
in a period of MVFR conditions for the central and northern
portions of the area late tonight into Wednesday morning, but it
will give way to VFR once again as the warm front lifts northward
early Wednesday. Brisk southwest winds will develop on Wednesday,
with afternoon gusts of 20-30 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...HAL



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