Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232021

National Weather Service Jackson KY
421 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 421 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

Kentucky mesonet continues to show some gusty winds (30 to 40
mph) at the higher elevations this afternoon but these do appear
to be waning just a bit. Also, these higher wind gusts generally
seem confined to the higher elevations. Will continue to address
this in the HWO through early evening. Have not seen any thunder
yet but MOS guidance still suggest a slight potential in the far
south. There are some stronger cells further south in TN. See no
reason not to hang onto a slight potential through early evening.

Mid/upper level low over the mid Mississippi Valley will meander
eastward very slowly through the short term period, moving from
the Mid-South to the Piedmont by Tuesday night. Short wave
disturbances will continue to rotate around the parent low
bringing a few bands or rounds of rain to the area. Surface wave
will also track eastward in step with the low center aloft. Do
expect a relative lull in activity between each round, including
one tonight where activity will be generally more scattered in
coverage but with a good portion of the forecast area seeing at
least some precip through the night. The threat of rain increases
again Tuesday as the low gets closer to our area. Like today can
not rule out the threat of thunder Tuesday afternoon as mid level
lapse rates steepen under the influence of the passing low and
diurnal heating helps destabilize the boundary layer.

Afternoon highs Tuesday afternoon will only climb into the lower
to mid 60s with rain and cloud cover, about 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. Extensive cloud cover will keep overnight lows slightly
above normal levels, around 50 to lower 50s. However, patchy
clearing will allow for some cooler spots and probably a little
patchy fog at times.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 421 PM EDT MON APR 23 2018

A broad upper level trough will remain over the eastern United
States into the upcoming weekend. Several waves will move through
the mean trough, but at this time it appears their impact on eastern
Kentucky will be minimal. By late in the weekend or early next week
the mean trough will be shifting east, and upper level and surface
ridging will begin to build into our area.

By 12Z Wednesday the slow moving stacked low pressure system which
brought the rainy start to the work week will finally have shifted
off to our east, but it will continue to influence our weather with
rain chances lingering into Wednesday. The models are in general
agreement that following the exit of this low pressure area, a
couple of short waves and/or upper lows will follow. One is expected
to move through the Great Lakes or northern OH valley and another
one is forecast to move from the plains through the southeast U.S.
It appears we will be between the two systems, with only a small
chance for showers in the far south on Thursday afternoon. By Friday
a cold front will be approaching, but again the impact of this looks
to be minimal, with shower chances so low that they will not even
appear in the forecast for most areas. After this frontal passage
rain chances continue to decrease, with dry weather for the weekend
and into early next week.

Temperatures will generally be below normal for the first part of
the forecast period, but will trend warmer by early next week as
ridging builds into the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Storm system over the mid Mississippi Valley will meander
eastward very slowly through the forecast period, moving from
Memphis to roughly Knoxville by this time Tuesday. Surface low
will move eastward along with the upper level feature. This will
keep the threat of rain in the forecast, but with a relative lull
through the overnight period as activity becomes a bit more
scattered in nature. However, rain returns by Tuesday morning as
the storm system moves ever closer to our area. In addition to the
rain will can expect to see deteriorating flight conditions
through MVFR and eventually into IFR territory for much of the
area Tuesday. Can not rule out some isolated thunder in our south
and southwest, but at present threat does not look high enough to
mention anything in the TAFs. Will watch in case some activity
manages to get closer to KSME or KLOZ. East-southeast winds at
around 10 kts with higher gusts will decrease through the late
afternoon and evening to between 5 and 10 kts.





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