Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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789
FXUS63 KJKL 201936
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
336 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 336 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

Available shortly...

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

A upper level ridge axis will still be extending across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys Sunday. This will help slow the progression
of rain showers activity northward and still may be too quick on
the progression northward overall. Did opt to adjust from what the
blended data provided for Sunday, but tried to remain match up
with the neighboring offices. The NAM is the wetter outlier this
afternoon for Sunday into Sunday night and this could be some
influence in the blended data. This southern stream upper level
low will remain the culprit for unsettled weather across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys through much of the period. This southern
stream system will eventually phase with a northern stream upper
level wave, but the guidance diverges greatly at this point on the
depth and forward progression of the northern stream feature. This
leads to a low confidence forecast from midweek onward. The slight
to chance POPs provided by the blended guidance seems reasonable
at this point and therefore little changes were made to the
forecast for this period. In general, the temperatures through the
long term will remain near normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018

High pressure will keep mostly clear skies in place, with winds
averaging around 5 kts or less out of the northeast through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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