Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 151918

National Weather Service Jackson KY
318 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 301 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

Widespread rain showers will continue to move across eastern
Kentucky through early this evening before finally tapering off
during the overnight hours. A an isolated rumble of thunder cannot
be ruled through this afternoon either. A cold front will be
moving through the area this evening, and will usher colder air
into the area tonight through Monday night. The rain will mix with
and change to snow tonight to mark the initial push of colder air.
Due to warm ground and pavement temperatures, however, little if
snow accumulation is expected for most locations. The higher
terrain along the VA and WV borders could see a few tenths to half
an inch of snow, but only along the tallest peaks. Monday looks to
be a cold, raw, and cloud day, with highs expected to only make it
into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Isolated to scattered rain and snow
shower linger across eastern Kentucky Monday and Monday night
before finally exiting the area early Tuesday morning. Tonights
lows will be quite cold, with minimum readings in the lower 30s

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

A large upper level low will continue to spin NE across the lower
Great Lakes and New England from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
night. This will keep KY in a deep NW flow pattern during the day
Tuesday, with increasing heights expected heading into the day
Wednesday. Ridging will remain in place briefly during the day
Wednesday. Meanwhile, both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement of
another closed low moving across the northern Plains and into the
Upper Mississippi Valley during this time. By Wednesday night,
however, the 2 models begin to show considerable timing differences,
with the GFS some 6 to 12 hours faster than the ECMWF. The track of
the low system remains in agreement, however, bringing the center of
the upper level low across the Ohio Valley just north of Kentucky
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. While the low should
exit NE of the region by Thursday evening, the ECMWF shows troughing
remaining into Friday, while the GFS shows more of a NW flow ridge
moving in during this time. Both models come into better agreement
of the ridge moving in overhead for the first half of the weekend,
encompassing much of the Ohio Valley and points southward.
Meanwhile, another closed low will be brewing across the southern
Plains, and will quickly shift eastward towards the mid Mississippi
Valley and western Kentucky during the day Sunday.

With so much troughing and NW flow across the region, expect the
advection of cooler air into the region, preventing daytime highs
from reaching seasonable normals on most days. Highs will generally
be in the 50s and low 60s throughout the workweek and into next
weekend. The only exception will be Wednesday afternoon just ahead
of a surface low pressure system, with breezy SW flow in place
across eastern Kentucky. This front is expected to pass through late
Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing with it low end rain
chances. Behind the front, expect a broad area of high pressure
expanding northward into Canada to begin approaching the Ohio
Valley, with deep northerly flow in place bringing the return of
those well below normal temperatures. This broad area of high
pressure will, however, keep conditions dry heading to the weekend
(with the exception of some slight chance pops for upslope flow in
the high terrain on Friday). Another low pressure and frontal system
will impact the state for the weekend, bringing precip chances to
eastern Kentucky Saturday night and through the day Sunday.

As for overnight temperatures, with such a cold airmass in place
after Wednesday`s cold front, any clearing that takes place will
help to quickly cool temperatures across eastern Kentucky,
especially in the valleys. As a result, expect several nights
throughout the extended portion of the forecast where at or just
below freezing temperatures will be possible. Areas of frost are
forecast for Friday morning, then again on Saturday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)

Rain showers will continue to impact all of eastern Kentucky this
morning and afternoon along/ahead of a cold front. A mix of
VFR/MVFR ceilings currently exists, with mostly MVFR ceilings
expected through much of the period. Any areas that experience
heavier showers may also see some IFR ceilings/visibilities.
The bulk of the rainfall will nudge east of SJS by mid-late
this evening as MVFR ceilings continue. Scattered showers will
remain possible through tonight, mixing in with some light snow
showers by Monday morning, although accumulations on tarmacs are
not expected. Winds will become increasingly gusty from the
south/southwest this morning, veering more westerly this afternoon
as the front approaches and moves through. Prior to this, have
inserted some mention of low level wind shear at JKL/SJS where
lighter surface winds will linger later into this morning as
speeds increase to near 40 knots near FL020.




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