Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 160757

National Weather Service Jackson KY
357 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

Rounds of light shower activity continue to stream across eastern
Kentucky early this morning, courtesy of moist upslope flow. A
strong upper level low will rotate across the upper Ohio Valley
today, keeping cold air advection intact. Given the presence of
cyclonic flow underneath this feature along with the nearby
presence of the left exit region of a 115 knot jet streak, plenty
of large scale lift will be in place through the day to generate
isolated to scattered showers when combined with upslope
enhancement. These will transition to mostly snow later this
morning as the column cools and saturation extends into the
dendritic growth zone. Accumulations still look rather anemic
given the quickly passing nature of these as well as relatively
warm ground temperatures. May see a dusting on grassy or elevated
surfaces with perhaps up to an inch on top of Black Mountain.

Wind speeds of near or greater than 30 knots below a frontal
inversion between 4000-5000 feet off the ground, will maintain
breezy west winds increasing to 15-20 mph later this morning into
this evening. Have opted to issue a Lake Wind Advisory for Cave
Run Lake, Laurel River Lake, and Lake Cumberland from late this
morning through mid evening. This wind will help to keep
temperatures confined to the upper 30s for daytime highs this
afternoon with wind chills largely holding near or below 30

Snow showers/flurries will taper off this evening as large scale
lift pulls off to the northeast and subsidence approaches from the
west/southwest. Winds will still hold near 10 mph through the
night as a decent pressure gradient remains intact across eastern
Kentucky. Clouds will be slow to scour out from southwest to
northeast, therefore bringing the best chances for widespread
frost to portions of southeastern Kentucky tonight. However, all
of eastern Kentucky will likely see temperatures fall to near or
below freezing for at least a couple of hours tonight and early
Tuesday morning, owing to the cool start this evening. A Freeze
Warning has been hoisted from mid evening through late Tuesday

Temperatures will rebound into the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday
afternoon as shortwave ridging and subsequent warm air advection
materialize across eastern Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT MON APR 16 2018

The period will be met with rising heights, as an upper level
ridge advects eastward across the Ohio Valley. This along with
developing warm front lifting into the Ohio Valley will provide
warm air advection Wednesday, as afternoon high temperatures climb
into the low to mid 70s. An upper level low to our northwest will
pull a surface low into the Great Lakes, with an attendant cold
front pushing into the region late Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Overall the upper level forcing will be quite weak and
not much in the way of moisture return, and therefore this will
lead to light QPF and low POP chances Wednesday afternoon and
evening. In the wake of the front, expect cooler weather to ensue
once again, as 850mb temperatures drop back below zero Thursday.
An area of surface high pressure and upper level ridging will lead
to another period of dry weather, with frost possible Friday and
Saturday mornings. There will be some modification to round out
the period, with afternoon highs climbing back into the 60s for
Saturday and Sunday. Then a southern stream upper level low will
progress eastward and this will lead to chances of rainfall along
a developing warm front late Saturday night into Sunday.

The overall long range models are showing reasonable agreement in
the general synoptic patterns. There remains some timing
differences in the upper levels especially toward the end of the
period this weekend. Given this was able to stick closer to the
blended model data for most of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

MVFR ceilings will likely be in place through much of today as
gusty west winds continue. These gusts will approach 30 knots at
times as sustained speeds range from 15-20 knots later this
morning through this afternoon. Speeds will likely remain around
10 knots or so tonight as clouds gradually scour out from
southwest to northeast. May see borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings
persist for a good portion of tonight. Isolated to scattered
rain/snow showers will also linger through much of this afternoon
and likely into this evening for JKL/SJS/SYM as these west winds
produce upslope flow along the higher terrain of western Virginia
and far eastern Kentucky. Despite temperatures struggling to climb
out of the 30s at the surface this afternoon, tarmacs should mainly
remain wet.


Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT this
evening for KYZ051-052-060-079-080-083>085-106.

Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for



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