Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 152232

National Weather Service Jackson KY
632 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Issued at 632 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

Nearly hit red flag conditions in some areas in our southwest
zones this afternoon as we have had some very gusty winds develop.
London has gusted to 36 knots in the last few hours with several
other sites showing similar readings. The winds should start to
subside over the next hour or two as surface begins to decouple
with the loss of heating. Air temperatures right now are still
well into the 60s in places and have updated the forecast to show
a slower decline into the evening. Also tweaked the sky cover a
bit as satellite shows the clouds starting to thin out in the


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

A cold front over the northern part of the forecast area will
work its way south across the forecast area tonight. The front
will stall over TN on Friday. The front will then serve as a
focus for precipitation as it gradually lifts north Friday night
in response to low pressure moving east from the plains into the
Mississippi Valley.

The model trend has been for a slower onset of precipitation, and
also warmer temperatures Friday night. At this time any freezing
rain Friday night looks to occur north and northeast of the
forecast area.

Some mid level clouds, associated with a jet streak, have
lingered across the center part of the forecast area through much
of the day. These should gradually shift south overnight. Despite
a gradual increase in clouds in the south and eventually the
central part of the forecast area late tonight, there should still
be enough radiational cooling in the valleys for at least a small
ridge valley temperature difference to develop tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 419 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2018

A frontal boundary oscillating back and forth over the region will
be the main feature through most of the period, bringing
temperatures variations and a potential for precipitation.

The front is forecast to be bisecting the area as the period
starts on Saturday morning, but it should drop to our south as a
cold front early in the evening. The NAM and GFS show instability
to varying extents as the front moves through, and a slight chance
of thunder is included.

Surface high pressure slipping by to our north is expected to
provide a dry day on Sunday, before the front returns north as a
warm front. This will be in response to a low pressure system
heading east from the plains and up the Ohio Valley. It is
supported by a shortwave trough tracing its roots to an upper low
currently off the Pacific Northwest coast. As the low passes by
and coastal development takes over to the east, the front will be
drawn back to the southeast and is expected to pass through the
JKL forecast area as a cold front on Tuesday. Showers will be
mentioned in the forecast Monday through Tuesday, with the highest
POP as the low passes by on Monday night.

The large coastal system works to carve out a significant eastern
CONUS trough to end the forecast period. This results in a return
of well below normal temperatures for our area. Light
precipitation will be possible for our area under the upper
trough, combined with low level cyclonic flow and cold air
advection. It should be cold enough for at least some of this to
be snow. A bit of light accumulation can`t be ruled out. However,
with light precip amounts at such long range, the specifics are
likely to change and it`s a little early to play it up.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Mixing has allowed some stronger winds aloft to make their way
down to the surface. As a result west winds will gust to between
20 and 30 knots this afternoon. The winds will diminish quickly
this evening and become variable and light in most areas by Friday
morning. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF forecast
period, with mid level clouds gradually increasing over southern
and central parts of the forecast area tonight.




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