Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST THU FEB 15 2024

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook covers eastern Kentucky.

The flood risk is near to below normal for this time of year. This
means that minor flooding is expected, with some instances of
moderate flooding possible.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Cumberland River
Barbourville        27.0   33.0   38.0 :  32   43   13   18   <5   <5
Pineville         1002.0 1010.0 1019.0 :  39   42   19   22    5    8
Williamsburg        21.0   27.5   32.0 :  55   62   24   32   13   18
Baxter              16.0   18.0   20.0 :  24   34   16   21   10   15
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg          20.0   24.0   30.0 :  45   54   <5   19   <5   <5
Ravenna             21.0   25.0   31.0 :  62   70   36   48    6   31
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville           35.0   42.0   50.0 :  22   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
Prestonsburg        40.0   43.0   46.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Paintsville         35.0   38.0   42.0 :  19   22   12   14   <5    7
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard              20.0   27.0   33.0 :  26   18    8   <5   <5   <5
Jackson             29.0   31.0   40.0 :  22   33   18   27   <5    8
:Pork Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland          12.0   14.0   16.0 :   9   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Red River
Clay City           17.0   19.0   23.0 :  27   39   21   26   10    9
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City        21.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville          27.0   32.0   38.0 :  42   48   26   32   12   13
Oneida              29.0   34.0   38.0 :  12   21   <5    7   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville         10.4   11.3   20.2   24.2   28.1   34.2   36.1
Pineville           982.2  983.2  991.6  997.9 1007.0 1014.5 1019.4
Williamsburg         11.3   11.7   17.1   22.0   27.2   33.2   35.2
Baxter                4.5    5.5    9.3   12.9   15.8   19.6   24.9
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg           15.7   16.2   17.3   19.6   21.6   23.1   23.6
Ravenna              17.3   17.5   18.9   23.0   26.6   28.7   31.4
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville            10.1   12.5   14.8   24.1   34.2   37.8   39.3
Prestonsburg          7.1    9.5   14.5   23.2   31.1   35.1   36.5
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Paintsville           8.6   10.7   15.2   24.4   32.4   38.7   41.6
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard                6.1    6.4    7.6   11.8   20.5   26.3   28.5
Jackson               8.1    8.6   11.8   18.2   27.5   35.2   39.9
:Pork Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland            4.8    5.1    6.5    8.8   10.2   11.8   13.3
:Red River
Clay City             7.5    8.3   10.8   13.1   17.4   23.0   23.8
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City          8.4    9.1    9.8   12.6   15.0   16.7   17.8
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville           12.1   12.8   16.7   24.4   32.3   39.1   40.3
Oneida               13.1   13.9   16.2   20.8   25.0   29.8   32.9

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/19/2024 - 05/19/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Cumberland River
Barbourville          2.7    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    2.0
Pineville           977.3  977.2  977.1  976.9  976.8  976.7  976.7
Williamsburg          4.6    4.3    3.9    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.3
Baxter                1.9    1.8    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4
:Kentucky River
Heidelberg           10.3   10.0    9.7    9.5    9.4    9.3    9.3
Ravenna              11.5   11.1   10.8   10.6   10.5   10.3   10.3
:Levisa Fork
Pikeville             7.4    7.1    6.9    6.7    6.4    6.2    6.1
Prestonsburg          3.6    3.2    2.8    2.5    2.1    1.9    1.8
:Levisa Fork Big Sandy River
Paintsville           4.9    4.3    3.8    3.5    3.0    2.8    2.7
:North Fork Kentucky River
Hazard                4.5    4.5    4.3    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.1
Jackson               2.1    2.0    1.8    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.4
:Pork Fork Cumberland River
Cumberland            3.7    3.6    3.6    3.5    3.5    3.5    3.5
:Red River
Clay City             3.3    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.6
:Russell Fork Big Sandy River
Elkhorn City          6.9    6.9    6.7    6.6    6.4    6.3    6.2
:South Fork Kentucky River
Booneville            5.0    4.7    4.4    4.2    4.1    3.9    3.8
Oneida                8.0    7.8    7.4    7.2    7.0    6.7    6.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Precipitation and temperatures across the area over the past 2 months
have averaged above normal. Current soil moisture values are running
slightly below normal for the middle of February, with streamflows
and reservoirs currently running above normal.

Precipitation over the next week looks to average between a half inch
and an inch, close to normal for that time of year.

The 6 to 10 day outlook, which runs from February 20th through
February 24th, calls for above normal temperatures and near normal
precipitation. The 8 to 14 day outlook, which runs from February 22nd
through February 28th, calls for above normal temperatures and
precipitation.

The outlook for March calls for near normal temperatures and
precipitation. Normal temperatures for March are in the upper 40s and
normal precipitation is between 4.5 and 5 inches.

The seasonal outlook, which covers March through May, calls for above
normal temperatures and precipitation.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available for
precipitation and temperature outlooks as well as soil moisture at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Current snowpack data are available at www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa.

Current streamflow data are available at water.usgs.gov/waterwatch.

Current reservoir levels for this area are available at www.lrl-
wc.usace.army.mil/reports/lkreport.html.

Visit our web site weather.gov/jkl for more weather and water
information.

The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
February 29th.

$$

GEOGERIAN




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