Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 262029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
329 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Overall, quiet weather is in store for western and north
central Nebraska as high pressure settles over the central Plains.
North to northwest winds today will remain strong through the
remainder of the afternoon and into early evening. Winds will
diminish after sunset (around 8pm CDT). Clear skies and light winds
overnight will allow for ample radiational cooling. Overnight lows
in the low to mid 30s should be expected.

For Friday...strong upper level ridging will continue across the
Rocky Mountains allowing surface high pressure to remain stationary
across the entire Great Plains region. Dry weather and clear skies
will continue with high temperatures rising into the low 70s for
most locations. The main weather concern will be increasing winds
again Friday afternoon. Winds are not anticipated to be as strong as
Thursday, however, northwest wind gusts near 25 mph could be seen.
The greatest threat for wind gusts over 20 mph will be east of a
line from Arnold to Springview.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

All eyes are on the potential strong to locally severe thunderstorm
situation Sunday and Monday. The forecast begins with a backdoor
cold front Friday. This high pressure system drops south through the
upper midwest and into Ohio valley Sunday. The models show moisture
returning north up the srn and cntl high plains Sunday afternoon. An
upper level low will be approaching the cntl Rockies Sunday evening
supporting storm development.

Bufkit suggested the CAPE was too low relative to the shear for
organized severe storm development late Sunday afternoon and
evening. The 1500 J/KG of CAPE shown in the GFS and NAM would be too
weak for the strong winds aloft. Forecast temperatures in the upper
70s and dewpoints in the upper 40s to around 50F should support a
few strong storms and perhaps a few severe ones too. The weak sfc
focus (dryline-elevated warm front) and deep vertical mixing suggest
a hail and wind threat with any storms which can reach severe limits.

The situation Monday is much more uncertain as the models show more
moisture, more focus but dry air surges through swrn Neb and into
Ncntl Neb Monday. This might set up the focus for thunderstorm
development across SD and ern Neb-mostly north and east of wrn and
ncntl Neb.

All of this weather is expected to end with the passage of a strong
Pacific cold front Monday night and during the day Tuesday.
Thereafter, cooler air aloft and at the sfc in combination with an
upper level trof suggested a chance of showers and general
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Strong north to northwest winds will continue to impact both
terminals through early evening. Expect wind gusts up to 35 knots
across KLBF Thursday afternoon. Wind gusts will be slightly lower
across KVTN. Expect wind gusts up to 25 knots across the northern
portion of the forecast area. Other than wind impact, quiet
aviation conditions will continue the rest of the TAF period.




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