029
FXUS63 KLBF 282313
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
613 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers should linger across north central Nebraska this evening.

- Seasonal to near seasonal temperatures are expected this week.

- Rain chances return on Tuesday and will persist into next weekend.
The best chances for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

H5 analysis from this morning had a closed low just off to the
west of North Platte Nebraska. A trough extended south of this
feature into far western Texas. Immediately east of the trough
axis, strong shortwaves extended from central Texas into the
Ozarks. Further downstream, a ridge extended from the Carolinas,
north to Lake Ontario. West of the trough and low, a secondary
shortwave trough was located over southern Alberta with a closed
low noted off the coast of central British Columbia. At the
surface, low pressure was located over southeastern Nebraska. A
warm front extended to the east into central Iowa. A cold front
extended south of the low into central Kansas and western
Oklahoma. Skies were cloudy this afternoon and very light rain
showers were occurring over the central Sandhills into portions
of central Nebraska. Temperatures as of 3 PM CT, ranged from 43
at Gordon and Thedford, to 51 degrees at Imperial.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Upper level low pressure will migrate northeast from northern
Nebraska into southwestern Minnesota overnight. Weak lift will
persist across far northern and northeastern portions of the
forecast area this evening, and will lead to a continued threat
for light rain through midnight. Thereafter, skies will continue
to clear into the overnight with cool temperatures developing
across the forecast area. For lows tonight, generally followed
the inherited forecast with a couple of modifications. The first
was to adjust lows up slightly in the northeast where cloud
cover, in association with the exiting low, could hold on until
daybreak Monday. Second, lowered lows slightly in the northwest
to bring them more in line with the latest guidance. This led to
lows ranging from around 30 in the northwest, to the middle 30s
in central and northeastern portions of the CWA. This will
facilitate frost across most of the forecast area. Will still
forgo any frost/freeze headlines tonight as we are about a week
away climatologically from our median date for issuing these
products. Finally, after looking at the latest NAM12, HRRR and
CONSHORT there is a fog signal in the west tonight. This is co-
located with some lighter winds toward daybreak Monday. With
this in mind, will insert a mention of fog for the western
Sandhills tonight. Monday will be mainly clear with highs
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s. On Monday night, a
northern stream disturbance will lift across northern Wyoming,
forcing a cool front into the northwestern CWA at 12z Tuesday.
The latest NBM probabilistic forecast has a 20 to 40 percent
chance of >0.01" of precipitation late Monday night. With this
in mind, went ahead and inserted some 20 pops in the far NW
after 06z Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The cool front will transition across the forecast area
Tuesday. Impacts to high temperatures will be greatest across
the northern forecast area as the front is not expected to pass
through southern and eastern areas until early afternoon. Along
the front, precipitation chances will increase with better
chances over northern Nebraska where mid level forcing is more
favorable. Probabilistic forecasts for measurable (>0.01")
precipitation are not great Tuesday and pops were limited to
around 30 percent. A second, stronger upper level trough will
lift across the northern Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday,
leading to the development of surface low pressure over eastern
Colorado. A warm front will extend to the northeast of this
feature into southeastern Nebraska. ATTM, with this setup, the
bulk of severe storms should remain east of the area Tuesday
night through Thursday. With the forecast area being north of
the warm front and in good easterly upslope was concerned
initially about heavy rain potential Wednesday night. The latest
WPC outlook has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
generally east of a line from Hayes Center, to Hershey, to
Lynch. Current probabilistic forecasts from the NBM only have a
20 to 30% chance of better than a half an inch of rainfall in
the marginal risk attm and this lends some doubt as to heavy
rain potential Wednesday night/Thursday. Beyond Thursday night,
the forecast becomes problematic. The pattern appears to become
more zonal into the weekend. This will lead to temps in the
60s/lower 70s. Precipitation chances will be less certain toward
the weekend given the zonal mid level flow and no pronounced
mid level forcing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The area of MVFR/IFR ceilings and -SHRA/-DZ across the Sandhills
and ncntl Nebraska will lift north and east very slowly tonight
and Monday morning. Widespread VFR expected across ncntl
Nebraska by 18z Monday.

Along and south of Interstate 80, VFR should be widespread
overnight and Monday except for one potential flight concern.
Dry air moving in aloft tonight and light sfc winds may produce
patchy valley fog, 3-5 mile vsby, 09z-14z Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC