Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1158 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

System will exit the area this evening with lingering
precipitation coming to an end. Surface low will weaken across
northeast KS this evening with winds quickly decreasing across the
area. Skies will clear from the southwest, and as winds decrease,
expect some patchy fog to develop. Lows will drop into the 20 to
25 degree range at most locations, so untreated wet roads could
freeze and become slick.

Sunshine is expected Saturday as ridging aloft builds in ahead of
the next system slated to cross the area Sunday night into Monday.
Highs will be mild Saturday, but have limited the warm up for areas
that received snow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

The main weather and forecast concern in the long term period is
the weather system anticipated to impact the region late Sunday-
Monday. Southwest flow will be in place overhead early Saturday
night with an upper-level ridge positioned across the eastern
Southern Plains into Manitoba and upstream an upper-level trough
will be over the western CONUS. Guidance remains in fair agreement
with a shortwave trough ejecting from the Four Corners region into
the Southern High Plains late Sunday and developing into a closed
low near the OK Panhandle. The closed low is then expected to
track into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Monday afternoon.
Meanwhile, guidance are in fair agreement with lee cyclogenesis
occurring across southeastern CO Sunday then moving into eastern
KS or OK Sunday night. While details are still forming, guidance
and BUFKIT thermodynamic profiles suggest less of a freezing
threat with precipitation in this event. Precipitation expected to
develop Sunday afternoon-evening then changing over to snow late
Sunday night/early Monday. Otherwise, there also appears to be a
low-end threat for thunder which was introduced to parts of
southwest NEB Sunday afternoon-evening. Precipitation is then
anticipated to end Monday evening with prelim total snowfall
amounts appearing light at this time (up to 2-3 inches in the
western Sandhills). In addition, Monday looks to hold potential
for modest gusts out of the north, peaking 30-35 MPH. Highs Monday
will be largely 10-15 degrees cooler than Sunday, mid 30s to lower

Looking ahead, northwest flow will be in place by Tuesday with an
upper-level ridge positioned across the western CONUS extending
from the far Southwest US into the Northern Intermountain West. Of
which, on the eastern periphery of the upper-level ridge Tuesday
there are some weak open waves moving through thus some low-end
chances for precip exist. Western NE is then anticipated to stay
in northwest flow through Wednesday. Thereafter the upper-level
ridge is expected to build eastward and will be positioned over
the Central Plain by early Thursday. Overall, temperatures are
expected to warm up with a general warming trend beginning
Wednesday that will continue into Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Mar 16 2018

MVFR and IFR ceilings remain across north central and central
Nebraska. Skies have become mostly clear in the southwest,
although MVFR ceilings near 1.5k feet AGL exist from near KLBF and
KLXN. Expect MVFR ceilings to prevail at KVTN along with patchy
fog with visibilities falling to 3sm by 10z and 1sm by 12z. at
KLBF 4sm br expected 10z-15z. Will need to monitor development of
fog with updates to the TAFs possible overnight.




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