426
FXUS63 KLBF 272317
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Showers and thunderstorms are expected late this evening
   into tomorrow, with locally heavy rainfall (amounts up to
   1.00") as the primary threat. Hail cannot be ruled out,
   though confidence in any severe weather threat continues to
   wane.

-  A mix of rain and snow is possible across the western
   Sandhills early tomorrow morning, though no accumulations are
   expected.

-  Additional shower and thunderstorm chances exist nearly each
   day Tuesday and beyond, with any threat for severe weather
   uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Currently, the area sits in a postfrontal airmass, with widespread
low stratus and northeasterly winds. Temperatures have held in the
middle to upper 40s across much of the Sandhills and northern
Nebraska, with low to middle 50s in southwest Nebraska where some
clearing is occurring. To the south of the area, widespread
thunderstorm development is underway along a surface stationary
front, draped across central and western Kansas. Additional
thunderstorm development is underway across eastern Colorado near a
deepening surface low.

For the local area, the primary focus will be the ongoing convection
across eastern Colorado. High-res guidance continues to be in good
agreement with respect to the evolution of this, with it lifting
northward with time into northwest Kansas. The environment
across southwest Nebraska continues to look very unfavorable for
any robust convection to persist into the local area, with
MUCAPE values of 0 along and north of HWY 34. This points to any
thunderstorms that survive the trek into northwest Kansas
quickly waning as they enter southwest Nebraska this evening.
Still, showers should overspread areas near and east of HWY 83
from south to north this evening, gradually ending near
midnight.

After midnight, the upper low will begin to eject eastward across
the area, with increasing precipitation in the deformation axis
across western Nebraska as FGEN increases aloft. This precipitation
shield should then slowly translate from west to east across the
area early tomorrow morning, persisting through much of the
afternoon. As temperatures fall overnight, cannot totally rule
out some wet snow mixing into the rain west of HWY 61, though
very warm ground should inhibit any accumulation. Any threat
from this looks to be tied to any visibility reductions at snow
falls. The persistent rain tomorrow will keep high temperatures
only in the 40s to low 50s across the area along with breezy
northeast winds, setting up a dreary end to the weekend.
Widespread precipitation amounts of 0.50-1.00" are expect for
areas east of HWY 61, with the higher end amounts (closer to
1.00") near and east of HWY 83. Amounts of <0.50" are expected
for areas west of HWY 61.

Precipitation ends from west to east tomorrow evening, as the upper
low begins to pull away from the area and dry air is ushered in
behind. Surface high pressure then settles into the area tomorrow
night, weakening winds as skies clear. This should set up
efficient radiational cooling across the area, and lows look to
fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. With the median frost date
still a few weeks away across the area, no frost/freeze
headlines are anticipated at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The active weather regime looks to persist into next week, with just
a brief lull in activity on Monday as shortwave ridging translates
across the area. Upper troughing then drops southward into the
northern tier into Tuesday, with flow aloft transitioning zonal then
broad southwesterly by Tuesday night. This southwesterly flow then
looks to persist into late week, as an upper low begins to deepen
across the Rockies into Thursday, before ejecting into the Plains
into Friday. This points to near daily precipitation chances Tuesday
and beyond, with the passage of at least a few surface frontal
boundaries. Persistently strong wind fields aloft does support ample
wind shear for bouts of severe weather next week, though guidance
remains in little agreement with respect to low level moisture
quality and associated instability. Trends will continue to be
monitored for the threat for severe weather, though confidence
in any threat remains low for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Western and north central Nebraska...an upper level low
circulating across Colo will move through Nebraska tonight and
Sunday producing widespread MVFR/IFR/local LIFR in rain and low
or very low ceilings.

MVFR ceilings underway this evening will lower to IFR in rain,
showers and thunderstorms. The nearest flight concern is a
developing area of rain and thunderstorms across nwrn KS. Radar
and model data suggests this activity will move north-northeast
this evening, affecting areas along and east of highway 83
through 06z.

Other rain and perhaps isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop west of highway 83 this evening and overnight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...CDC