000
FXUS63 KLBF 172042
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
342 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Precipitation chances today and tonight

*Strong winds this evening into the overnight

*Cooler through the first part of the weekend

*Another chance for rain/snow Thu. night through Sat. morning


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

There are a couple of concerns in the short term. The
first being the potential for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, and strong winds this evening into the
overnight. Precipitation chances will increase late this afternoon
across western Nebraska with the approaching front. There is the
potential for thunderstorm development across the southern Sandhills
into southwest Nebraska in the early evening and could event
potentially see an isolated threat for a severe storm, which would
mainly be for damaging wind gust, but could also see some small hail
with an outside chance of hail up to 1". Storms look to be elevated
in nature, but soundings do suggest there could be an environment
favorable for downburst or strong outflow within the strongest
storms. There will also be the chance for more moderate rainfall
across portions of north central Nebraska, extending back into
the central Sandhills, generally along and east of HWY 83.
Rainfall amount of 0.25 to 0.50" may be possible.


As for snowfall potential, did decrease precipitation chances
across the northern Sandhills after midnight across the
northwest Sandhills, which looks to confine most of the
precipitation across the northwest Sandhills to rain as
temperatures will generally main above freezing during the best
chance for precipitation, however a brief period of a rain/snow
mix can`t be ruled out, but do not expect any snowfall
accumulations.

The next concern is the winds this evening into tonight, strong
winds will move into the area behind the frontal boundary. Some
bufkit soundings are hinting there could be some good deep
layer mixing just ahead of the frontal push and could
potentially tap into some strong winds of 40 to 50kts that could
bring an isolated 50 mph wind gust or stronger to the sfc,
mainly across southwest Nebraska, generally south of I- 80, in
the early evening hours. As the front passes more widespread
stronger winds will be expected across southwest, north central
and portions of the central and southern Sandhills starting in
the mid evening hours, through the overnight. Probabilistic
models continue to increase winds during this time period with
the last several runs, thus forecaster confidence has increased
in seeing widespread wind gust of 30 to 40 mph, so have bumped
winds up to better account for this.

Cooler temperatures tonight and Thursday, weak CAA behind the
frontal boundary will bring in lows tonight in the upper 20s to mid
30s and keep highs on Thursday generally in the upper 40s to low
50s. Coldest temperatures will generally be across the northern
Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The weather pattern will remain active to end the week
into the weekend with a couple of disturbances affecting the area.
After a brief lull in precipitation for Thursday, chances increase
into Thursday evening into Friday. A secondary push of colder air
will move in late Thursday and will see a better chance for a
rain/snow mix across the northwest Sandhills early Friday morning.
Although accumulations still look to be marginal, a light dusting
may be possible. For the rest of the area, precipitation will mainly
be in the form of light rain showers throughout the day, mainly for
areas west of HWY 281. At this time rainfall amounts Friday into
Saturday look to be light, generally around a tenth of an inch or
less.

A weak upper level ridge builds in across the west and will bring a
return to warmer temperatures with highs bouncing back into the
upper 50s to low 60s for Sunday and even some upper 60s to low 70s
by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions through the first part of the valid period,
followed by a frontal passage.

For KLBF: Expect frontal passage to occur toward sunset with
onset of MVFR clouds along with showers/thunder. Winds will
become quite gusty to 35kt. The best potential for
showers/thunder will this evening through around Midnight but
winds will be slow to diminish after precipitation moves off to
the east. Expect a return to VFR shortly before daybreak with
winds becoming gusty again Thursday morning after diurnal
heating mixed the boundary layer.

For KVTN: The more dynamic portion of the front will be further
to the south so expect winds will gust to around 25kt with
arrival of the front early this evening, along with showers
though probabilities for thunder are not high enough to include
a mention in the TAF. Precipitation will be diminishing after
Midnight and could see a mix to -RASN before ending. Winds will
diminish toward daybreak followed by an increase with gusts 25
to 30kt Thursday morning after diurnal heating mixes the
boundary layer.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...MBS