Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 221729

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1229 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

A well defined upper level low located across southern CA, will
eject northeast toward the central Rockies today. Meanwhile surface
low pressure will deepen across northern CO in response to the
ejecting upper low. This will tighten the surface pressure gradient
across the plains, with south to southeast winds of 10 to 20 mph by
this afternoon. This will draw gulf moisture northward into the
region, with most model solutions holding dew points around 60F
through much of today. CAM solutions indicate that convection may
develop late this afternoon across southwest NE in an area of
moisture convergence. These storms may expand some in coverage as
they move north into the Sandhills and portions of north central NE
this evening. Overall coverage remains scattered and probably not
severe as H500 flow is weak around 15 to 20 kt. Otherwise a warm
day, with highs reaching the mid 80s at most locations. Very mild
tonight with the increased Gulf moisture and winds not decoupling
much, with lows in the mid 50s western areas to mid 60s across
central and portions of north central NE.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Overall expect the weak mid and upper level flow to continue right
through the Memorial Day weekend. Another large upper trough/low
will carve out across the western CONUS during the weekend, with a
tropical low drifting northward across the Gulf of Mexico into the
southeast CONUS. Expect a slight to low chances for thunderstorms
both Wednesday and Thursday nights, then upper level ridging will
build between across the central plains between the two upper
level lows Friday through Sunday. This should bring mainly dry
conditions, and quite warm as well, with highs nearing or
exceeding 90F Saturday and upper 80s Sunday. Chances for
thunderstorms return Memorial Day as the western CONUS upper low
inches eastward toward the region. Meanwhile the southeast CONUS
upper low will draw abundant tropical air into the southern and
southeast CONUS. Some of this will be drawn northward into the
Central Plains, with PWATS well over 1.25 inches early next week,
perhaps leading to some locally heavy rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

The main aviation concern for the next day will be the chance of
some rain showers and thunderstorms tonight. The best chance for
storms will be between 8pm and 2am across both terminals. Low level
wind shear is also expected at both sites as the low level jet
intensifies. VFR conditions return on Wednesday morning as ceilings
remain well above 5000 feet and visibilities stay above 6 SM.




LONG TERM...Taylor
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