Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230443
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1143 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

A brief upper ridge builds onto the High Plains as the main closed
low drops into the Southeast U.S. and the next trough lines up in
the northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure
gives way to a developing lee side low and cold front later Monday.

This evening and tonight... Stratocumulus field slowly dissipates as
an area of weak mid-level fgen disappears and the high pressure
overhead provides overall subsidence. Looking at light south winds,
mostly clear conditions, and decent boundary layer decoupling. With
little temp advection at H85, went toward the cooler end of guidance
for lows in the mid/upper 30s.

Monday... Southerly flow strengthens and a H85 thermal ridge
develops ahead of the approaching cold front. Bumped up highs a
couple degrees across the board to account for WAA, mixing to H75,
and dry air in the mid levels making for fair skies through the
afternoon. Forecast is generally upper 60s, which is finally
slightly above normal. Removed PoP before 21z and confined schc
after 21z to far NW Neb as the boundary just enters the panhandle
around 00z.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

An upper trough will dig across North Dakota, through western
South Dakota, Wyoming and northern Utah Monday night. A cold
front will move east to near a Valentine through Imperial line
overnight. Rain is likely mainly west of highway 83 overnight.
Enough instability exist during the evening for a few
thunderstorms possible west of highway 61.

The NAM is slower than the GFS with the upper low, with the
closed low forecast over the northern panhandle and far southwest
South Dakota by 00z Wednesday. On Tuesday, likely rain chances
will be mainly east of highway 83, with a 40 to 50 percent chance
to the west. The 12z NAM is much wetter with higher QPFs than any
of the other models, and therefore went near the forecast blend
for POPs. Due to overcast skies, weak cold air advection, and rain
expected, highs were trended down a few more degrees to the mid
and upper 40s, except low 50s far eastern zones. North winds to
range from 15 to 30 mph behind the front for Tuesday.

Models in better agreement in the forecast track of this system
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wrap around precipitation is
expected to the east and north of this system Tuesday night, and
even lingering into Wednesday morning. Tuesday night, likely POPs
nctrl into central Nebraska lowering to a slight chance far
southwest zones. This followed by a lingering, mainly slight
chance across southeast zones Wednesday morning. Models are mostly
warm enough Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, to keep
precipitation type as all rain, the NAM is coldest and does
support at least a mix over the Sandhills. Therefore, there is a
small chance that light accumulations on grassy surfaces could
occur. Highs Wednesday were trended down a few degrees to the
upper 50s and lower 60s due to the slower system exit.

The rest of the week, Thursday through Sunday, northwest flow
aloft will prevail. A cold front is forecast to pass through
Wednesday night, cooling highs to the upper 50s with northwest
winds 20-30 mph. There is a slight chance for rain Thursday
morning, however this is mainly supported by the ECMWF. Upper
ridging Friday through Sunday will return highs to the mid 60s
Friday and upper 60s to low 70s by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Expect mainly clear skies over the next 18 hours across western
and north central Nebraska with few to scattered high clouds
ranging from 20000 to 25000 FT AGL. Clouds will begin to increase
Monday evening with broken ceilings AON 8000 FT AGL expected
after 03z Tuesday at the KVTN terminal and after 05z Tuesday at
the KLBF terminal. Occasional showers will develop overnight
Monday night and persist into Tuesday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler



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