Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240352
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1052 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ice accumulations from from freezing rain/sleet may range up
  to two tenths of an inch across north central Nebraska
  tonight into Sunday morning.

- Potential for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and early
  evening, especially across southwest and south central
  Nebraska where storms may produce isolated wind damage and
  large hail. Heavy downpours of rain are possible.

- A strong storm system impacts the area Sunday into Monday,
  though uncertainty remains in extent of potential impacts.
  Initially, precipitation falls as rain and a wintry mix,
  before transitioning over to snow Sunday night. Snowfall will
  be heavy at times. Additionally, strong north winds 25 to 40
  mph with gusts to 60 mph Sunday night into Monday will create
  widespread blowing and drifting snow, with blizzard conditions
  possible and widespread travel impacts expected Sunday night
  through late Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Based on the latest HRRR and current temps, went ahead and added
Custer, Thomas and Hooker counties to the current winter weather
advisory. This was for the increased threat for light freezing
rain overnight. The window for this will be tight as
temperatures should rise in these counties by mid morning
Sunday. In these areas, we could see a light glaze of ice
overnight. The advisory will run for the same time period as the
existing advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Tonight, surface low pressure will deepen across southeast Wyoming
and eastern Colorado, where a stationary front will be located. To
the east of this front, models are indicating an increase in
moisture advection, with dewpoints rising into the lower 30s across
southwest Nebraska into the panhandle during the evening. Rain
showers will develop across the western Sandhills, as well as
potential for isolated thunderstorms. The forecast environment does
not look supportive of any strong storms with MUCAPEs remaining
below 100 J/KG, though 0-6km shear will remain from 40-50kts. Gusty
winds and pea size hail may occur with the stronger storms. Likely
POPS are forecast to spread northeast across the forecast area
overnight. Rainfall amounts up to two tenths of an inch are
possible, mainly east of Highway 83. Bufkit sounding favor freezing
rain or sleet across the eastern half of north central Nebraska. Ice
accumulations up to two tenths of an inch are forecast. The Winter
Weather Advisory across north central Nebraska from 06Z until 18Z
Sunday remains in effect.

On Sunday, a large upper trough across the western U.S. will
progress eastward. A closed low is forecast to develop over eastern
CO by late afternoon with deep surface low pressure near 980mb over
southeast Colorado. A warm front will extend northeast across
southwest into central Nebraska. Meanwhile, an arctic cold front
will drop southeast during the afternoon. This will result in a
strong contrast in temperatures by late afternoon from the low 30s
in the northwest Sandhills to the low to mid 50s across the
southwest. This will support the chance for rain and thunderstorms
near and south of the warm front across southwest into central
Nebraska during the late afternoon, with rain mixing with or
changing to snow across the northwest Sandhills by late afternoon.
MUCAPEs will reach 500-1000 J/KG by late afternoon. A few strong
storms are possible until mid evening, containing large hail and
damaging winds. Heavy downpours of rain are shown by the majority of
the CAMs and various deterministic models ahead of the advancing
cold front late Sunday afternoon and evening. Local rainfall amounts
of a half to over three quarters of an inch are forecast.

As the cold front advances quickly southeast Sunday night, the
closed upper low will track from southeast Colorado into central
Nebraska overnight. Some model differences remain, as the ECMWF is
faster and further east with the low track. The latest forecast uses
the NBM. Rain and evening thunderstorms will continue ahead of the
advancing cold front Sunday night. There will likely be an hour
transition from rain to freezing rain/sleet, then snow behind the
front. This will lead to a period of freezing rain or sleet where
amounts may approach one tenth of an inch before a full transition
to snow.

The larger concern will be the winter weather impacts behind the
front. With deep surface low pressure off to our southeast,
northerly winds will quickly increase Sunday night to 25 to 40 mph
with gusts up to 60 mph possible. These strong winds will persist on
Monday, then diminish Monday evening. This will result in widespread
blowing snow Sunday evening into Monday. Due to the convection
nature of this system, snowfall rates may get heavy at times Sunday
night into Monday morning, which will likely lead to white-out and
blizzard conditions.

As for the heavy snow potential, confidence has increased that heavy
snow will occur over portions of southwest into north central
Nebraska. What remains uncertain is where the location of the
heaviest snowfall band sets up. The current forecast has the heavy
snow band extending from western Lincoln county broadening
northeastward across eastern Cherry county through Keya Paha County.
Much will depend on the speed of the low pressure system, which
seems to change run to run. If the system trends to the slower
solution, similar the the GFS then potential increases for the snow
to start further west and accumulate for a longer period. On the
other hand, if the system trends faster like the ECMWF, the snow
banding may develop further east. What remains fairly certain is
that the combination of the strong winds, along with the potential
for heavy snowfall to result in widespread hazardous travel
conditions. Widespread areas of blowing snow are expected, and white-
out to blizzard conditions are possible.

A winter storm watch remains in effect for most of western and north
central Nebraska from Sunday evening through late Monday night. This
includes Keith, Perkins and Lincoln County to the south and all
counties to the north and east. Forecast snowfall amounts in the
watch area range from 3 to 5 inches across Lincoln County in the
south, to 4 to 10 inches over a large portion of west central
into north central Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

The system should exit the area late Monday night. Winds will remain
strongest from 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph Monday evening,
diminishing overnight. This will leading to areas of blowing snow.
Patchy blowing snow possible into Tuesday.

An upper level ridge will build into the region Wednesday through
Saturday. Temperatures Tuesday will remain cold into the 20s and
30s, moderating into the 40s Wednesday, 50s to 60s Thursday and
Friday and 50 to 60 Saturday. The amounts of existing snowcover will
dictate the amount of warmup through Thursday, so confidence in the
warmup is below average.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Increasing clouds are expected over the next few hours in advance of
the next weather system. Precipitation arrives across the north
(KVTN) as freezing rain through early Sunday morning before a brief
break. Precipitation will then move into the region Sunday mid-
afternoon as rain and then transition to a rain/snow mix. For points
further south (KLBF), precipitation will arrive by late Sunday
afternoon starting off as rain and even an isolated thunderstorm.
Snow will eventually become the dominant precipitation type after
sunset (00Z Monday) and temperatures drop below freezing.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Sunday for
NEZ004>010-024>029-038-094.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for NEZ004-094.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday
night for NEZ005>010-023>029-035>038-057>059.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Kulik


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