Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 210422
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1122 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

The primary forecast challenges through Saturday are precipitation
and temperatures. As an upper low moves across the central/southern
Plains, rain chances will remain high for much of western Nebraska.
Dropping temperatures will allow some of the rain to mix with or
switch to snow.

This evening and tonight... Spread lkly/def PoP east to all areas
but far north central Neb. The heart of the H5/7 fgen cuts across
the Sandhills as consistent isentropic upglide at 290K and southeast
sfc flow provide low level lift and moisture advection. Hi-res
solutions including RAP, HRRR, and HREF suggest at least scattered
coverage through the overnight hours. Lows will be rather tricky
with temps falling into the mid/upper 30s with a few spots
approaching the freezing mark in the panhandle. Little temp
advection occurs at H85 and thick cloud cover will limit rapid or
extreme drops, but areas of enhanced precip rates may result in an
earlier switch to snow or prolonged snow. Forecast soundings
indicate the thermal profile to be on the fence for rain/snow as ice
initiation occurs in the cloud layer, but much of the lift and
moisture are located well below the DGZ, aside from sfc temps or wet
bulb at/above 0C. Confidence for snow remains highest for areas west
of Hwy 61, where up to 1 inch is possible overnight.

Saturday... Precip chances continue through the day with weak
isentropic upglide and easterly/upslope flow, although coverage and
intensity decrease in the afternoon as mid level forcing weakens.
Little additional snowfall is expected after 12z, limiting potential
impacts to travel. Overall QPF should be fairly light after 18z as
just scattered showers remain. Temperature-wise, again little to no
advection takes place at H85, while stratus will keep things cool.
Made little change to previous forecast as highs trend toward the
cooler MET guidance, staying around 50F (10 to 15 degrees below



.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

System progressing as forecast this morning. Convection moving out
of northeast Colorado into the southern Nebraska Panhandle.
Precipitation continues over western Nebraska on Saturday and ending
Saturday evening as upper support shifts east. Highs in the 50s
south and 60s north as cloud cover lingers over the south. Ridge
rebounds over the northern Rockies as upper low moves across central
Canada and trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Warming into
the mid 60s Monday. A Pacific cool front will move across western
Nebraska late Monday early Tuesday with the rain chances increasing.
Could see a few flakes of snow through the early morning but
temperatures holding in the mid 30s for lows and most of that
reached around sunrise on Tuesday. Another clipper rolls into the
northern plains Wednesday evening. This could kick off a few showers
but with the gulf blocked isolated at best. Ridge increases over the
west as closed upper system slams into northern California. Highs in
the 50s and 60s Thursday and in the 60s on Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Latest radar display shows precip moving in and developing from
southwest NEB to northwestern NEB. Meanwhile, snow is mixing in at
times also in the southeast Panhandle per NE DOT report this
evening. Current thinking is precip will continue to move in and
affect the eastern Panhandle, western and southern Sandhills, and
southwest NEB rest of tonight. Threat for snow or wintry mix is
anticipated to expand eastward to encompass along and west of
highway 61. Tomorrow, changeover back to rain there with rain
showers continue early Saturday then rain chances diminishing
during the afternoon.

Otherwise, ceilings presently range from IFR in the Panhandle to
low-end VFR (less than 7 kft) in the central Sandhills and
southwest NEB. Ceilings are anticipated to deteriorate across
southwest NEB and the Sandhills rest of tonight with IFR ceilings
anticipated in west central and southwest NEB. Slow improvement
tomorrow in terms of ceilings across much of the area with sub-VFR
ceilings prevailing (IFR-MVFR).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...ET



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