Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 131717

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1217 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

H5 analysis from earlier this evening, has a highly
amplified pattern across the CONUS and Canada. Low pressure was
located over central Ontario south to Lake Erie. A second low was
present near Wilmington NC. A broad trough of low pressure extended
south into south Florida. Further west, a weak shortwave was located
over western Nebraska and was producing some mid level cloudiness
across portions of western Kansas and eastern Colorado overnight.
West of this feature, a high amplitude ridge extended from the
intermountain west north into northern Alberta. West of the ridge, a
high amplitude trough of low pressure extended form the Gulf of
Alaska south to off the coast of central California. At the surface,
high pressure was located over North Dakota and extended south into
South Dakota and northeastern Nebraska. Winds overnight were nearly
calm or light from the east, skies were clear and 3 AM CDT
temperatures were in the 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Today and tonight...High pressure will build south
southeast along the upper Missouri valley today. Winds will
gradually shift around to the south from west to east this
afternoon. Weak warm air advection will lift east of the Panhandle
this afternoon with H85 temps rising into the single digits above
zero west of highway 83. H85 readings will range from zero to -1c in
the northeast this afternoon. That being said, highs this afternoon
will range from the mid 40s in the northeast, to the mid 50s in swrn
Nebraska. High pressure will build south into the Ozarks tonight.
Light southwesterly winds will develop across the area overnight.
With light winds, dry air and clear skies in place, readings will
drop quickly after sundown with overnight lows bottoming out in the
lower to middle 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Dry and quiet weather will continue for another couple days until
a more active weather pattern arrives late in the week. Two more
relatively warm days are expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
Wednesday highs could reach into 60s, with slightly cooler
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s on Thursday.

Active weather will then arrive Thursday night as a low pressure
system develops off the front ranges. For now, most precipitation
will fall as rain on Thursday night and Friday. There is a brief
period on Friday morning where there could be a wintry mix (freezing
rain and snow) for locations north of Highway 2. Confidence is not
exactly high for the details of this storm, but enough guidance is
suggesting this wintry mix to warrant a mention in the forecast.
Precipitation moves out of the area by Friday evening.

A brief dry period returns on Saturday and into early Sunday with
mild temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s returning to the region.

Another round of precipitation is expected late Sunday and Monday.
Timing of this system is uncertain, but at this time, precipitation
will start off across the Pine Ridge region and western Sandhills on
Sunday morning with precipitation type being either snow or a
rain/snow mix as temperatures will be below freezing. Precipitation
will migrate eastward throughout the day and will slowly transition
to an all rain event. As temperatures drop after sunset Sunday
night, rain will slowly transition back to snow. As this system is
still several days out, will hold onto a more modest snowfall total
for the region. Heaviest snow will be across the north where up to 5
inches could be seen. Lesser amounts are expected the further south
one goes with only about a half inch along the I-80 corridor.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions and light south/southwest winds will continue through
Wednesday morning across western Nebraska. The only concern during
the forecast period is possible low level wind shear overnight (up
to 25kts at around 1kft).




SHORT TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Snively is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.