Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
348 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Models in fair agreement in the near term and have used a blend for
the forecast. Some patchy fog developing early this morning and will
keep patchy fog in the forecast through the morning. main forecast
challenge will be precipitation onset and precipitation type. Some
returns on the radar in the KCDR vicinity early this morning with
temperatures between KBFF 37f and KCDR at 43f. These echoes are
moving north along an inverted trough axis over the western
Panhandle. Have retained some minimum rain snow mix this morning.
The surface low over the eastern plains of Colorado will continue to
deepen through the day. Increasing clouds from the northwest and
south through the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies today.
southeast flow and upslope along the trough axis. Highs in the upper
40s north and the MID 50S south. Outlooked for general thunder south
of Interstate 80. This is supported by bufkit and have retained iso
thunder already in the forecast.

Winds shift to the north through the evening and with upper support
and cooler air moving in a changeover to snow through the late
evening.  Low end event with a couple of inches of snow through the
early morning hours over Sheridan county and an inch or less further
south and east. Over night lows in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The primary forecast challenge deals with the winter weather event
stemming from a closed upper low crossing the central/southern
Plains Sunday into Monday. Questions remain regarding the timing and
magnitude of cold air with the system, affecting the precip types.
Northwest flow then takes over aloft as a ridge builds across the
Western U.S. and progresses onto the Plains late week. The ridge
then breaks down, bringing the next chance of precip.

Monday... The closed upper low is slated to reach the Ozarks by
midday, but continuous moisture advection and mid level fgen over
the central Plains keep precip in Neb. into the afternoon. Despite
CAA on the backside of the low, H85 temps remain relatively mild
(around -3C by 00z). Forecast soundings continue to show
questionably warm-ish temp profiles across SW and central Neb and
the best chance of accumulating snow in NW Neb and the western
Sandhills. However, enhanced precip rates and sfc wet bulb temps
around 0C may result in brief bursts of snow farther east. The
current forecast keeps the trend of 1-3" snow west of Hwy 83 and
around 1" east.

Tuesday to Thursday... With the ridge over the Rockies and downslope
or southerly flow at H85, warmer and mainly dry conditions are in
store. Bumped up temps a bit toward the warmer MEX and ECE guidance
as H85 temps approach 10C Wed and 15C Thu, resulting in widespread
50s and 60s.

Friday and beyond... The ridge begins to flatten and a stout
shortwave ejects onto the Plains. Confidence is high for PoP at some
point, but large differences regarding timing result in schc to chc
PoP over an extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

The main aviation concerns later tonight into Sunday morning
remain the development of patchy fog and stratus. MVFR ceilings
are expected to lower to IFR by 10z and push west to near ANW and
BBW by 12z. These low ceilings will be near or just east of the
KLBF terminal from 12z-17z. Visibilities will be as low as 1sm and
locally 1/4sm, but should remain east of the KLBF and KVTN
terminals. Lowest visibilities at the terminals expected to be
3sm. Southeast winds are expected to create enough mixing to
lessen any dense fog potential. Will continue to monitor model
trends this evening. A weather system will move in Sunday evening
and bring lowering ceilings and a chance for rain showers toward
the end of the TAF period.




LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Roberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.