Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 181143
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
643 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Surface low pressure will deepen across northeast CO today ahead of
an approaching upper level low which is over UT early this morning.
An inverted SFC trough will extend northeast from the low across
southwest into north central Nebraska through the day. Appears that
cloud cover will limit SFC heating across much of the area, with the
best chance for seeing cloud breaks and destabilization will be
across southwest NE. Appears that the severe threat may be limited
due to this factor, as the airmass will likely struggle to recover
after this mornings MCS. Nevertheless a few severe storms will be
possible, the most likely scenario would be for elevated storms do
develop this evening as a moist southerly low level jet strengthens
and noses into southwest NE. Large hail would be the main severe
threat. The bigger threat could be from heavy rainfall, as mentioned
the southerly LLJ will persist through much of the night, with
continued thunderstorm development and locally heavy rainfall
exceeding 2 inches in some locations. Will issue a flood watch for
areas that received heavy rainfall early this morning and the
expected heavy rainfall in these same areas tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

The main story for the first part of the weekend will be the
continued rain and isolated thunderstorms. While severe weather will
be minimal on Saturday, heavy rain will still be a concern. The
latest guidance is indicating this system this weekend will produce
significant rain across the entire north central Nebraska region. By
Sunday, total rainfall could be near 3.0 inches for most locations.
This heavy rain combined with recent snowmelt could become a concern
for local rivers. With a flood watch issued this forecast through
Saturday, will need to keep an eye on the rivers to see if an
upgrade will be necessary.

Recent model guidance has slowed the system down a little. As a
result, precipitation will stick around through Sunday.
Precipitation will slowly taper off throughout the day. High
pressure will then build into the region on Sunday night bringing a
brief break to the area. Dry weather will stick around through
Monday before the next precipitation system arrives on Monday night.
Confidence is low in severe potential for storms on Monday night. A
wet pattern will continue throughout the rest of the week.
Generally, weather will be dry for much of the day with
afternoon/evening showers and storms possible Tuesday through
Thursday. These storms will be mainly be diurnally driven and severe
weather potential is low at this time.

Temperatures will be on the cooler side for Saturday with highs
ranging from the upper 40s across the Pine Ridge region to the low
60s across south central Nebraska. Temperatures will then steadily
rise through the remainder of the extended period with afternoon
temperatures back into the upper 70s and low 80s by next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri May 18 2018

Variable ceiling heights will be seen across the area with lower
ceilings in the west where cigs could drop to MVFR at times.
Otherwise convective complex moving slowly southeast with the main
areas of showers and thunderstorms east of Highway 83 and should
exit east around 15Z this morning. The next round of thunderstorm
develop this afternoon where heavy rainfall is likely as
thunderstorms develop and move eastward.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for
NEZ022-035>038-056-057-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Keck



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