097
FXUS63 KLBF 061755
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1255 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A potent storm system crosses the region today. Strong winds
  and scattered thunderstorms (a few possibly severe) can be
  expected.

- The severe storm risk will generally be east of Highway 83
  from late this morning through the mid-afternoon hours.

- Very strong westerly winds and low humidity values west of
  Highway 83 will lead to elevated fire weather concerns this
  afternoon.

- An unsettled week ahead with gusty northwest winds at times
  along with scattered showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Potent upper level low pressure is currently centered across
northern UT and southern ID. Ahead of this feature, deep surface
cyclogenesis is underway across northeast WY. A large reservoir of
gulf moisture across the southern plains is being rapidly
transported northward on strong southerly low-level flow across the
plains. The stage is being set for a round of strong/severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the central and
southern plains.

The surface low across northeast WY will continue to deepen and move
into western SD (near Rapid City) by midday. A strong Pacific cold
front will arc southeast of low...extending roughly along Hwy 83
across Nebraska. This front will become the focus for thunderstorm
development through the afternoon across central and into eastern
Nebraska. Surface dew points ahead of the front will generally be in
the upper 50s across central and north central Nebraska. With the
increase in moisture, low clouds will be a concern in regards to
instability. Most hi-res near term models keep the lower clouds in
place across our area as the cold front advances through central and
north central Nebraska this afternoon. This will likely limit
overall instability, but it appears at least weak MLCAPE should
materialize just ahead of the advancing front. Forcing will be
strong, and expect at least some convective development along the
front, roughly along Hwy 183 in the early afternoon. The convection
appears it will quickly transition to a linear mode as it moves
eastward into south central and eastern Nebraska by late this
afternoon. The primary risk for our area looks to be damaging wind
gusts and a lesser threat for hail. The better thermodynamic
environment should reside across southern/eastern Nebraska along
with the higher severe threat. Will have to watch for any clearing
leading to more instability, but for now that doesn`t appear to be
the case for our area.

The airmass behind the cold front across western Nebraska will be
quite dry as it spreads eastward from WY. As temperatures warm to
near 70F and humidity values fall an elevated fire weather threat
will develop. The spring green up is underway however, and the
threat would be for areas that still have lingering drier vegetation
where the green up has been delayed. These conditions will spread
farther east Tuesday and encompass much of the region. Again
affecting areas with a delayed green up.

The other concern will be the potential for high winds across
western and especially northwest Nebraska this afternoon into the
evening hours. Strong westerly winds will develop behind the cold
front. Sounding profiles suggest that there could be some sporadic
gusts near 55 mph mid to late afternoon into the early evening
hours. More wind Tuesday as a dry, well mixed boundary layer will
have overspread the area to the south of deep low pressure across
the northern plains. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be
possible Tuesday afternoon as cold air aloft rotates southward into
the area. Will have top watch as these showers could help mix
stronger winds aloft to the surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

An unsettled period is expected for the end of the work week. Upper
level low pressure will slowly fill and weaken Wednesday across the
northern plains. By Thursday it weakens further as it drifts
southward into Nebraska before shifting east on Friday. Breezy
northwest winds and shower chances will remain both Wednesday and
Thursday with the upper low in the area. A reinforcing cold front
will drop southeast across the area Friday as a shortwave drops
southeast from Canada toward the Great Lakes. The weekend is looking
dry with high temperatures likely into the lower 70s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions are likely at both terminals through the forecast
period. Main concerns will be the threat for convection and
strong winds. For now, convection was developing along a line
just east of LBF to just west of TIF. This was progressively
pushing northeast away from LBF so no impacts are expected. For
VTN, isolated development in vicinity of the terminal cannot be
ruled out so have added a mention for a brief period this
afternoon before exiting. Thereafter, winds shifting to the west
will gust as high as 50 mph, strongest at VTN, and likely last
through the evening. As this occurs, mid-level clouds will
stream into the area but expectation is for ceilings to be at or
above 10kft AGL.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...NMJ